UK RIP?
Moonraker 5
Ayrshire, ScotlandPosts: 1,821MI6 Agent
On 1st May 1707 the Kingdoms of Scotland and England surrendered their independence and entered into a political union, the Kingdom of Great Britain, the basis of today's United Kingdom. 300 years and 2 days later, Scotland goes to the polls and is poised to elect a Nationalist administration for the first time in it's history.
The Scottish National Party are way ahead in the polls and are on course to emerge as the largest party in the elections for the Scottish Parliament. A party who's central epithet is to break up the United Kingdom and establish Scotland as an independent sovereign state within the European Union. Last week the party unveiled it's plans for the first 100 days in government - basically a series of demands to be made to London, with a referendum on independence to capitalise on the sentiment. Yesterday, they unveiled the question they would put to the Scottish people in a referendum on independence, to be held within the first 4 years of their term.
Tony Blair, the Iraq War, the replacement for Trident, the general malaise of the current Labour-led government in Edinburgh...any combination of these factors and more could be the reason that the SNP are riding so high at the moment; and Labour's very negative scaremongering on Scottish independence is at best embarrassing and cringeworthy. Whatever their thoughts on the matter, Scots don't like being told they're too small, too poor or too stupid to run their own affairs.
But health, education, transport, council tax - these issues have fallen by the wayside and the upcoming election looks set to be pitched squarely around the continued future of the United Kingdom. And when Gordon Brown takes over as Prime Minister this summer, we may have a Scottish Prime Minister in London kicking against a Nationalist administration in Edinburgh.
Some polls point to a slim majority (51-55%) who would "vote yes in an independence referendum", while only 32% "favour ending the union with England", depending on how the question is asked. But yet in another poll 51% reckon the Union will not last another 50 years.
Personally, while Scottish to my core, I'm also British and European and I don't see either as being mutually exclusive, and I think it would be a very sad day if the Union Flag was lowered over Edinburgh Castle for the last time. But I am no longer fearful of it, and given Scotland's renewed confidence and identity, it's healthy that it has this very serious debate with itself.
The UK is sailing in choppy constitutional waters, and the storm may yet get much worse. Will we weather it together, or is it time the ancient nations of this island went their separate ways, consigning the United Kingdom to the history books?
The Scottish National Party are way ahead in the polls and are on course to emerge as the largest party in the elections for the Scottish Parliament. A party who's central epithet is to break up the United Kingdom and establish Scotland as an independent sovereign state within the European Union. Last week the party unveiled it's plans for the first 100 days in government - basically a series of demands to be made to London, with a referendum on independence to capitalise on the sentiment. Yesterday, they unveiled the question they would put to the Scottish people in a referendum on independence, to be held within the first 4 years of their term.
Tony Blair, the Iraq War, the replacement for Trident, the general malaise of the current Labour-led government in Edinburgh...any combination of these factors and more could be the reason that the SNP are riding so high at the moment; and Labour's very negative scaremongering on Scottish independence is at best embarrassing and cringeworthy. Whatever their thoughts on the matter, Scots don't like being told they're too small, too poor or too stupid to run their own affairs.
But health, education, transport, council tax - these issues have fallen by the wayside and the upcoming election looks set to be pitched squarely around the continued future of the United Kingdom. And when Gordon Brown takes over as Prime Minister this summer, we may have a Scottish Prime Minister in London kicking against a Nationalist administration in Edinburgh.
Some polls point to a slim majority (51-55%) who would "vote yes in an independence referendum", while only 32% "favour ending the union with England", depending on how the question is asked. But yet in another poll 51% reckon the Union will not last another 50 years.
Personally, while Scottish to my core, I'm also British and European and I don't see either as being mutually exclusive, and I think it would be a very sad day if the Union Flag was lowered over Edinburgh Castle for the last time. But I am no longer fearful of it, and given Scotland's renewed confidence and identity, it's healthy that it has this very serious debate with itself.
The UK is sailing in choppy constitutional waters, and the storm may yet get much worse. Will we weather it together, or is it time the ancient nations of this island went their separate ways, consigning the United Kingdom to the history books?
Comments
The SNP, however, obviously want the whole thing. Their plans on independence include creating a Scottish Defence Force and withdrawal from NATO (probably coupled with permanent neutrality written into the constitution, a la Sweden and Ireland), taking their share of Embassies and Consular representation overseas, a seat at the UN and the creation of a Council of The Isles for Scotland and the remaining UK to continue working on mutually beneficial areas such as transport, border controls and the like. They also want to retain Sterling until a decision on Euro entry is made, that the newly re-styled Her Grace Elizabeth, Queen of Scots, would continue as Head of State, and that other than the creation of a Scottish state broadcaster, media provision would remain unchanged.
But my main question remains - why? It may not be functioning properly at the moment, but after 300 years isn't it worth exhausting options to keep the Union alive? Most Scots (from opinion polls) seem to believe it is worth saving, even though the same number say it's not working for Scotland right now.
Of course, the SNP saw a surge in 1974 (the beginning of oil exploration) and returned 11 MPs with a share of the vote that they've not managed to regain since. In fact, in the election which swept Margaret Thatcher to power they were all but wiped out. Fed up with Labour, won't vote Tory, Liberals permanently the 'nearly party', who left to register your protest with north of the border? Canada, Spain and increasingly Belgium have strong separatist movements that have gained government in their devolved regions and not managed to break away, so there's nothing to say an SNP government will manage it here...
Both your posts on this matter I found fascinating. As I know, from previous discussions, that you are a unionist I was surprised at this revelation: "But I am no longer fearful of [independence], and given Scotland's renewed confidence and identity. . ." To be perfectly honest this sort of reflects my own feelings: I would vote 'no' in any referendum on independence however I do not think that an independent Scotland, in the European Union, would be some sort of economic and social disaster. It is precisely this sort of negative campaigning on the part of Scottish Labour that is probably counter-productive. Surely the politicians campaigning in this negative fashion must realise that a far more effective means of winning support would be to talk up the positive aspects of the Union?
Having read today's Times one may reflect further on the Scottish election only five weeks away. According to their poll, the SNP would take 50 seats (out of 129), Labour 43, Lib Dem 18, Conservative 17 and others 1. On the first ballot the SNP are on 38 per cent to Labour's 28 per cent, and the Nationalists hold a 5 per cent lead on the second ballot also. I doubt some aspects of the Times' coverage: the proportional system means it is perilous to start estimating seat numbers, and I find it hard to believe that the minor parties (currently holding 16 seats altogether) will be wiped out in this way. Nevertheless, there can be no denying that the momentum is with the SNP, and it would take quite a serious change in circumstance for Labour to maintain the lead in seats over the SNP they enjoy in the current parliament. Indeed, on the basis of several polls it seems highly unlikely that they will hold on the the position of largest party, despite the ground the SNP need to make up.
However, some other elements of the Times' coverage are interesting. Although a majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more powers for the devolved parliament, only 27 per cent are in favour of full independence (I am afraid I do not know the phrasing of the question). Moreover, Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond run equally when it comes to preferred First Minister. The issues, then, seem to stem from UK politics, combined with a general malaise with the Lib/Lab Executive. Many Scots may vote for the SNP while not supporting the party's central goal in order to have alternation of the parties in power and to register disillusionment with the traditional governing party in Scotland. This is why I found another of Moonie's points to be justified:
I have, for family reasons, particular interest in Canada and it is notable that the Parti Québécois has formed the government of Quebec and not gained independence. In the 1980 referendum 60 per cent rejected independence; in 1995 50.4 per cent did. In the meantime the trains still ran, the schools were still open and patients were treated in hospital as normal. PQ provincial governments may not have been ideal from a federalist perspective, and they did give Canadian politics a rather anamolous character, however they did not spell the end of the world. Similarly in Scotland, an SNP-led Executive would certainly not be ideal from my point of view but I do not fear it like the plague. And in any event, the PQ ran Quebec as single-party majority governments; the SNP would almost certainly have to chance it as a minority administration or be constrained by coalition partners. (Incidentally, the PQ were reduced to third-party status as a result of Monday's provincial election in Quebec).
I was sceptical until quite recently however were I forced to make a prediction I would guess that the SNP will emerge as the largest party in Scotland. Will that signal the end of the United Kingdom, or UK RIP? Not necessarily.
The argument already has the positive impact of maturing the nation. We're emerging from the grumpy, naval gazing, "blame everyone else but us" attitude. The rise in SNP support, indeed modern nationalism (if I can call it that), is not coupled with a hatred for the British state nor any glimmer of anti-English feeling. In fact, the latter seems to have all but vanished as, could it well be, we're now starting to look on ourselves as equals who are capable of choosing a future, rather than some brow-beaten dependency culture that stokes up resentment. Possibly because the SNP are ahead in every socio-ecomonic voter class (did you read the Jenner's Tea Rooms bit?) is driving that level-headedness.
You are right in that divvying up seats from a proportional representation poll is a bit of a hasty thing to do, and though Wee Alex's target of winning 20 seats now looks likely (and more), he's still not guaranteed government. But the phrasing (and results) of the independence question was:
Thinking now about the position of Scotland within the United Kingdom and the role and powers of the Scottish Parliament, which of the following statements comes closest to your view?
Too much power has already been devolved to Scotland from Westminster: 6%
The current situation with a devolved parliament in Scotland works well: 12%
Scotland should remain in the United Kingdom, but the Scottish Parliament should have more power to run affairs in Scotland: 52%
Scotland should be a fully independent state, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom: 27%
If those views were to remain unchanged, then Alex's keystone referendum in 2010 would be a guaranteed failure. Quite massively so. The SNP without independence is...what?
And therein may lie Gordon Brown's nuclear option. How to torpedo an SNP-administration in the first 100 days of government? Gamble and hold your own referendum, of course. "The SNP propose that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom and become an independent state, do you agree?" A big no vote would take the feet from under them and their central argument would be rendered unconscious for decades.
Indeed, this is what came through in Alex Salmond's piece in one of last week's Daily Telegraphs. It was a shameless piece of opinion-writing (he suggested that some may doubt England's ability to srurvive economically without Scotland's oil) however it demonstrated a very different form of Scottish nationalism than that of the past: devoid of hatred and insistent on the benefits to both Scotland *and* England. I think it fascinating that the SNP are now making noise in support of English independence on the basis of two independent, equal states.
I did and I must admit I found that quite funny. The image of all these lovely middle-class ladies taking tea in Jenners preparing to revolt (in a very understated and levelheaded way, of course) is one I find amusing, in a British sort of way.
Agreed. I just cannot see the Greens being completely obliterated in terms of seats as this poll suggests. The far-left might get hammered, as there are now two parties (SSP and Solidarity) very well may lose any representation, although on the basis of a personal vote our friend Tommy may get back in. 8-)
Ah, thanks for that. I missed the wording there. What I think this demonstrates is a growing confidence in the Scottish Parliament, after the whole building fiasco. This must be a good thing, as there is so little faith in electoral politics nowadays that some positivity about the institution is welcome.
Well it would probably become a sort of Scottish PQ as the party does have other policies it could implement in government. The PQ has social democracy; so has the SNP. Sort of. The party is actually coming out with quite centre-right ideas about stimulating enterprise in the Scottish economy and lowering of business taxes and barriers to investment. Much if this, undoubtedly, is to woo the Scottish business community, however it *could* end up that the SNP is a moderately centre-right party with nationalist leanings. Given such economics, the natural coalition partner could even be, dare I say it, the Scottish Conservatives!†
Incidentally, to back up the idea of the SNP being moderately centre-right in economic terms (despite talk of social democracy), Mr Salmond keeps talking about emulating the Irish Republic's 'Celtic Tiger' success. A small part of that was due to EU transfers (which an independent Scotland would struggle to get given the poorer regions in the east of Europe) and a large part of that was due to exceptionally low corporatate taxes:
This would be the clever thing to do, although it does suggest an optimistic reading of Gordon Brown's political courage. I doubt the Times' wording of the question would be allowed legally (the mention of a particular party in a legal referendum would seem highly unfair) but it would, on the basis of current findings, be lost by the separatists quite spectacularly. Where that would leave an SNP-led Executive I do not know, although the Quebec experience suggests that they would probably survive and govern as normal.
There are still five weeks to go, however this could be one of the most fascinating and important elections the UK has seen. Certainly more interesting than the 1999 and 2003 Scottish elections, for sure.
† I know, it will be a cold day in hell before that happens, especially as the SNP explicitly repudiates the idea of an SNP/Tory partnership in its constitution. Still, as a sad politics fan it is fun to speculate.
The idea that it's the SNP that's stirring the dormant, once sizeable centre-right vote, is something I'm finding rather bizarre. Particularly when they block out a coalition with the Tories (who have always appeared more akin as political bed fellows than the Liberals) on the dubious grounds of political taste, it makes it even more weird. However, it could also be the mill stone that holds the SNP back, when the left wing vote realises it's not getting the socialist policies it so desires from them either. Gain one chunk of voters, switch off another - they can't be all things to all people. (Considering that half the electorate seem to think along Liberal lines for the future of the parliament, why do they trail so badly?)
For all I think Alex is the epitome of smugness, and that Gnasher Nic is a nippy sweetie*, they're making quite the canny pair and, so far, rather formiddable politicians, they've not once stooped to the level of negativity that Labour have launched at them.
*I have to clarify that I can only speak about her appearances in Parliament and interview. During the short time I chatted to her in Brel she didn't once sink the head, but was chatty and engaging.
There are elements of the SNP's proposals that are attractive to the centre-right, a vote they have managed to woo to an extent in the north-east of Scotland for quite a long time (even while it was far more of a social democratic party than it is now). But you are absolutely right Moonie, it is this that holds the SNP back in its attempt to make inroads into the Labour heartland in the central belt. Then again, that looks likely to change in this election as it appears many former Labour supporters (and other party supporters) are considering voting Nationalist.
I agree. For this reason I think that Salmond is far less of a 'vote-getter' than the SNP seem to think he is. To be fair, though, the SNP leadership have, thus far, conducted a *far* more positive campaign than Labour, who have resorted to very negative campaigning in a pretty cackhanded fashion.
Another day, too, and another poll. This one, conducted by YouGov for today's Telegraph, shows a more modest SNP lead but a reasonably solid one. More interesting, however, is that the poll highlights that Labour's decline in Scotland appears to be about UK decisions and policies, and almost *nothing* to do with the Executive. Jack McConnell's approval rate is, according to this poll, now at 30 per cent, one point higher than it was four years ago. Moreover, 34 per cent approve of the Executive's record, compared with 30 per cent four years ago. The proportion disapproving of the Executive's record has fallen dramatically from 51 per cent in 2003 to 39 per cent today. A clear majority—52 per cent—believe that 'having a coalition Executive, involving both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats, has worked'.
How, then, is one to explain the sudden rise of the SNP and the corresponding decline in the Labour party's fortunes? From recent research it appers that this change is based on opinions of the British government and Tony Blair's record as prime minister, and not based at all on the current Executive's performance. I think that performance is not particularly impressive, however a clear majority of Scots disagree with me. Fascinating, then, that this Executive looks set to be thrown out by the voters.
What is evident is that the SNP's rise has nothing to do with some significant increase in the number of Scots favouring independence. 64 per cent support the idea of holding a referendum (making the Lib Dems refusal to countenance one all the more baffling), however 51 per cent would vote to remain a constituent part of the UK. Only 28 per cent are in favour of a 'completely separate state outside the UK'. As mentioned previously much depends on the wording of the question. Still, there does not appear to be a great swell in separatist sentiment.
All I know is that Scotland is in for a bumpy few weeks until polling day!
Sources: The Daily Telegraph
YouGove
I read this week that Wales has abolished all prescription charges, while in England, prescription charges have been raised to £6.85. This apparently brings in £450m of revenue annually to the Treasury. As I hinted towards above, the politics of devolution are not really my interest or specialist area. But news stories like the above make me think: 'How can Wales afford to do things like this?' My guess is it is probably a question of political courage rather than cost.
I always think of myself as being British rather than English, and I tend to think of Scotland as being a state within the United Kingdom rather than as an autonomous country. On the subject of Canada and the PQ, it would be sad to see Quebec leaving Canada. The Harper government passed a motion recognising Quebec as 'a distinct society within a united Canada', or words to that effect. My own view is that both Canada and the United Kingdom are holistic nations, worth more together than the sum of their different parts. I can't say I have any deep understanding of Quebecois politics, but it seems to me that the Canadian government have gone strides to accomodate the French-Canadian population, notably through its policy of bilingualism.
But back to the subject at hand, it would be very sad to see Scotland go its own way and leave the UK.
The argument is that Scotland receives more back from the Treasury than it pays in (not taking the SNP's fabled black gold revenue into account), and thus that is creating a "dependency culture"; that we're hooked on hand outs from Westminster. That is why the clamour for full fiscal autonomy is growing ever louder, and will undoubtedly win. The argument then is that if Scotland can only spend what it raises (again, not taking oil into account or our share of the Armed Forces etc) locally, then it will be forced to become more accountable for it's own actions. The Scottish Executive would be responsible for taxing and spending, therefore they will have to be far more switched on to the bigger picture.
For the record, prescription charges have also gone up 20p here too, but my take on the Welsh situation is good on them if that's what they've decided to do. Here, we've got other benefits that they haven't, or haven't yet, managed to enjoy.
Poll after poll over the past week has shown the SNP making record gains of 23 to 25 seats. The Scottish Parliament has risen and the campaign has started. We've got 4 weeks left, the fly posters are starting to go up around my constituency (a relatively safe Labour seat that is being highlighted as a trigger seat - if it falls to the SNP, then an SNP/Liberal coalition is likely to have a majority) and the gloves are off. Sadly, in the television debates that have so far taken place, they've become punch and judy shows between Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond - who quite clearly hate each other - while by far and away the best performers, agreed by pundits in the paper and snap shots of the audience, Nicol Stephen (Lib Dem), Murdo Fraser and Annabel Goldie (Scot Cons) are sticking to the everyday issues that matter most but are being drowned out by consitutional sniping.
Today, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are both in Scotland to launch a double assault on the SNP. To be honest, anything Tony Blair does in Scotland these days is going to have exactly the opposite effect, the best thing he could do is to actually campaign for the SNP. Anyway, this bit came from The Times regarding their trip north - perhaps it's time to bang their head off the wall and shout "Have you thought about 'Protest Vote'???"
The decision by the two to face the SNP threat together comes at a time when Labour strategists are bemused at the party’s failure to get Scots to believe that independence will follow inevitably from the election of a Nationalist Scottish Executive in Edinburgh. The polls are also in agreement that there is no surge of support for independence with only one in four Scots backing separation. “We aren’t managing to pin the independence tail on the SNP donkey,” said one Labour source.
I did watch the Politics Show this morning with all 4 leaders on. Unsurprisingly Annabel Goldie and Nicol Stephen were the winners of the day, but Jack McConnell being asked how much a pint of milk was ("80p?" "Good answer, but it's wrong, it's 35p") showed just how quick Wee Alex is - "It'll be 80p if he's re-elected!"
One thing's for sure, Scotland is far the better for this. At least we're now behaving like grown-ups and all 4 leaders are clearly passionate about the future of our nation.
Though I am going to put my cross in the box for Annabel to be re-elected in the West Of Scotland region, and for her party to force a 'no overall control' on Labour for North Ayrshire Council; as the main opposition here, they've got a strong chance of it