This thread has taken a few unexpected turns! Never thought I'd see Barbel making political comments
I'm not quite sure why so much is being made of how Bojo has got into Downing St, it seems perfectly logical and democratic to me that this should be the process, it would be similar whomever was in power and needed to replace a party leader and therefore PM.
With regards the current situation again, making proper preperations for a no deal Brexit is sensible, and should have been done from the offset by May, if the EU refuse to negotiate an acceptable agreement then there are only 2 choices and one of those has been turfed out of parliament on 3 occasions and not just by hard Brexiteers either iIrc the UK is legally obliged to pay 7 billion to the EU to cover our commitments, the 39 billion sweetheart payment looks like bad value for money based on the current withdrawal agreement and as such I think it's perfectly reasonable to say you would only pay what's legally required in the case of no deal being reached.
So far Bojo to my eye has come accross more prime ministerial and competent than I thought he ever could, his opening day in the house of commons was fascinating to watch, the opposition looked like rabbits in the headlights, I also approve of his cabinet choices more or less. I've always said a Johnson premiership would be either catastrophic or sublime, either way it will be entertaining, and after it all we will still all be here arguing about Bond come what may.
There is no „Sweetheart amount“ in the GBP 39 billion
What has been agreed?
On 11th December 2017, the Prime Minister confirmed that the UK and the EU have agreed “the scope of commitments, and methods for valuations and adjustments to those values.” The calculations are an estimate of the UK’s commitments to the EU, valued according to a set of agreed principles. The bill is made up of:
The UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020;
Payment of outstanding commitments; and
Financing liabilities up to the end of 2020.
In November 2018 UK government and EU negotiators reached agreement over the UK’s withdrawal from the EU (the draft withdrawal agreement) which reaffirmed that the UK and EU have agreed that the UK will honour its commitments to the EU through a financial settlement.
The divorce bill is not binding until parliament approves the draft withdrawal agreement. That agreement has so far been rejected three times by the UK parliament.
The UK and EU agreed some principles for the settlement:
no EU Member State should pay more or receive less because of the UK's withdrawal from the EU;
the UK should pay its share of the commitments taken during its membership; and
the UK should neither pay more nor earlier than if it had remained a Member State.
iIrc the UK is legally obliged to pay 7 billion to the EU to cover our commitments,
Is carefully chosen, because after a Hard Brexit, the UK will not be under EU justinction, so the EU could not sue for payments anymore.
A loophole which totally disregards, what the UK have promised, signed for and obliged over the years and your last PM has confirmed these obligations.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
And before someone is trying to smartly point out that the divorce bill has not been ratified, this is true, but-
Over the years of the EU membership, the Uk have signed several commitments and obligations.
When Brexit was decided, part of the negotiations was to write down all these commitments and put them into an amount. After much work, both parties agreed, that the equivilent of these obligations has been set at around 39 billion GBP.
So, the UK signed for those obligations, no matter if a later check has been ratified or not by the UK parliament.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
These are not the commitments that have been signed by the UK during the EU membership.
They are 39 billion
Calling the difference between the 39 and 7 billion a „sweetheart deal“ is misleading
As an example, the UK pay 13 billion/year membership fees and the fiscal period (UK signed for the EU budget until 31.12.2020) ends 2020. so your amount of 7 does not even cover this.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
It doesn't have to cover it after a no deal Brexit, irrespective of what some in the UK would have us here believe a deal goes both ways and has to show goodwill on both sides, I'm sorry but so far the eu has shown not too much goodwill, sure they have stuck rigidly to the rules (though they will break those rules when it suits) but it has shown no movement toward any compromise. In my view the 39 billion should be paid in the event of a mutually beneficial agreement, should that not happen. I certainly believe its one part of the uks bargaining hand that should be played.
But as you've pointed out, once we leave we aren't bound by eu law, and the failure of withdrawal agreement to pass parliament throws that up in the air somewhat.
You still have a signed contract and the obligation, unless you feel that it‘s right that the other EU members are paying in for the UK obligations.
And as I have stated earlier, these obligations may be internationally regarded like state bonds, failing to pay back like promised may have severe consequences for the national credit rating.
And it will be a very unfriendly move towards the EU and a trade deal will be almost impossible and even under Gatt regulations, the EU will have to cooperate.
You don‘t really expect the EU just to accept failure to follow obligations and just to move on?
Johnson may give you that illusion - it has nothing to do with reality.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Sir MilesThe Wrong Side Of The WardrobePosts: 27,746Chief of Staff
This thread has taken a few unexpected turns! Never thought I'd see Barbel making political comments
I'm not quite sure why so much is being made of how Bojo has got into Downing St, it seems perfectly logical and democratic to me that this should be the process, it would be similar whomever was in power and needed to replace a party leader and therefore PM.
With regards the current situation again, making proper preperations for a no deal Brexit is sensible, and should have been done from the offset by May, if the EU refuse to negotiate an acceptable agreement then there are only 2 choices and one of those has been turfed out of parliament on 3 occasions and not just by hard Brexiteers either iIrc the UK is legally obliged to pay 7 billion to the EU to cover our commitments, the 39 billion sweetheart payment looks like bad value for money based on the current withdrawal agreement and as such I think it's perfectly reasonable to say you would only pay what's legally required in the case of no deal being reached.
So far Bojo to my eye has come accross more prime ministerial and competent than I thought he ever could, his opening day in the house of commons was fascinating to watch, the opposition looked like rabbits in the headlights, I also approve of his cabinet choices more or less. I've always said a Johnson premiership would be either catastrophic or sublime, either way it will be entertaining, and after it all we will still all be here arguing about Bond come what may.
Boris Johnson is a bumbling arse...and that’s an ‘appearance’ he’s cultivated for many years...truth is, he’s FAR worse than that...John Oliver showed him to be the calculating deviant he is...Andrew Neil took him apart in spectacular fashion quite easily...the UK will have to borrow BILLIONS to get out of the Brexit ‘no deal’ scenario - undoing the years of austerity the UK has been through to try and get back on an even keel...and some people will just sit back and laugh at Boris and his exploits, not realising we will ALL have to pay sometime
Hopefully the Conservative majority could be gone by next week -{
Just to lower the tone to its base level ..... I'm amazed at the amount of people who seem to
have one of these ....
..... and are so skilled at predicting the future,
This weeks lottery Numbers would be appreciated {[]
This will be my last comment on this thread, as I keep making enemies, it would appear to some
I'm an ultra right wing Fascist ( well nobody's perfect ) so I'll simply ignore the comments from
the two individuals, with no further contact -{ ..... If only to keep the peace, and let the debate run,
and run, and run, and run,and run, and run and ..............
"I've been informed that there ARE a couple of QAnon supporters who are fairly regular posters in AJB."
It doesn't have to cover it after a no deal Brexit, irrespective of what some in the UK would have us here believe a deal goes both ways and has to show goodwill on both sides, I'm sorry but so far the eu has shown not too much goodwill, sure they have stuck rigidly to the rules (though they will break those rules when it suits) but it has shown no movement toward any compromise. In my view the 39 billion should be paid in the event of a mutually beneficial agreement, should that not happen. I certainly believe its one part of the uks bargaining hand that should be played.
I find the "Goodwill" comment and expectation remarkable.
After abusing the EU for decades as a scapegoat for everything that is going wrong, your current PM calling the EU "Like Hitler" and many more insults came our way, the UK decided to leave.
Again, the UK decided to leave!
All comments, that after a Brexit, the main asset - the Common Market - will not be available anymore have been put down as scaremongering "because the german car companies still want to sell their cars and will pressure the bureaucrats".
The UK were campaigning unprepared, they showed up totally unprepared at the negotiations and still don't have anything substantial decided, what they want and how they want to exit.
There was a Brexit Date in March and the EU could have let jump the UK over the edge with No Deal by not agreeing with the extension.
Another extension was granted some weeks later because "We will not push anybody out of the Union".
And you complain about a lack of goodwill?
The negotiations were intense and long, there is an agreement which the UK are not able to ratify - and now you complain about a lack of "goodwill" on the EU side?
With "Goodwill" you certainly mean that we should offer you the common market for free, without all the obligations and rules that the other EU members are forced to comply with - and are paying membership fees for.
This won't happen!
Leave our Union, insult us for decades, threatening to ruin our economies and our Union, spread lies about us and call us propagandists, undemocratic, bureaucraty, slow, evil - kick us in the gut and kick us in the balls, threaten to ruin our economies and not to pay what was duly agreed on and signed for, threaten us with a tax competition down to the bottom and then complain about the lack of "Goodwill" from our side.
When I am speaking with my friends in France, Spain, Austria and here they all are just shaking their heads.
But the Brexiteers know everything better.
Sometimes, I wonder if you must be a Brit to still defend what is going on there...
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
In my view the 39 billion should be paid in the event of a mutually beneficial agreement, should that not happen. I certainly believe its one part of the uks bargaining hand that should be played.
Do you really expect, that a Union like the EU, with an annual budget of 141 billion Euros will give up their rules and principles over a sum of less than 30 billion (Part of the 39 billion GBP have been paid off during the first 7 months) just because some Brexiteers in phantasyland are pretending to play hardball and press them to ruin their own country for decades with a Hard Brexit?
It did not work with the blackmailing with the German cars, it won't work with the final bill and failing to follow international agreements will have severe consequences for the UK. No matter, what is "legally obliged" or not in a questionable legal position.
The Brexiteers have totally overplayed their band right from the beginning and have driven themselves into a corner where they have no alternative to acting more and more crazy and radical. Not that it'll help them anyhow.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
The EU budget is set until end of 2020.
The 39 billion GBP is not calculated in in any budget plans because the British parliament did not ratify the deal.
The UK pay around 13 billion/year, the public sector receives around 4,5 billion, the private sector receives around 2,5 billion.
13-7= 6 billion annual*, so until end of 2020 there are around 9 billion missing if the UK stopped paying right now.
And annually 6 billion out of 141 billion annually would be missing in the future.
It‘s a lot of money, but won‘t give the UK any stronger negotiation power, no matter what the Brexiteers are wishfully thinking of.
I have just made this calculations, before someone smarter than me comes up and tells me that 30 billion is a hefty amount in 141 billion.
It‘s always good to look a bit deeper into details.
* and now compare 6 or 7 billion annually with all the costs that are related to Brexit.
The preparations, information campaigns, the new border staff and so on.
Are you sure that you are better off without the EU?
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Seems like business as usual! The tories want to lock up dangerous criminals for longer, and Labour are complaining about Grouse shooting )
Meanwhile Diane (calamity) Abbott questions how BoJo will pay for the extra police he's promised..... Stating that his sums don't add up, but never questioned how Corbyn was going to fund buying student votes by writing off student loans, or buy back all the railways and power companies! But then this is the woman who reckoned employing 3000 more police officers would only cost £300,000 per year )
„The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.“
Donald Tusk
I am still waiting for B. Johnson putting the „alternative solutions“ for checking the borders on the table, or would that be too simple?
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Silhouette ManThe last refuge of a scoundrelPosts: 8,845MI6 Agent
„The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.“
Donald Tusk
I am still waiting for B. Johnson putting the „alternative solutions“ for checking the borders on the table, or would that be too simple?
Well, according to your Chancellor Angela Merkel Boris Johnson has a month to come up with these technical solutions to the Irish border issue in order to avoid a no deal Brexit and the so-called hard border on the island of Ireland.
That seems fair enough as a no deal Brexit is to be avoided so I just hope Johnson can satisfy the EU leaders in this regard in the time remaining that he has graciously been given by Germany and France. It is in both the interests of the UK and the EU that we get this thing sorted once and for all time and leave on 31 October 2019 with the right deal for both parties.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
The UK had already 3 years to come up with a technical solution.
Not sure if 30 more days will make it, however the backstop was only put into the agreement incase that there is no technical solution for the irish border issue.
Boris Johnson was swinging the well known threats at the G7 and he has been asked several time how he wants to solve that issue. Let‘s remember, the UK wants to leave, so they should have a plan how not to fuel up the Ireland conflict again.
He was dancing around the question with no proper reply.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
I really don't understand how suspending Parliament is justifiable in the name of democracy.
I can see a bit of both sides with this, a lot of mps are trying to stop Brexit and using the whole no deal as a reason, which in itself flies against a democratic vote, stopping that by suspending parliament protects that democratic vote, but is in itself undemocratic.
To my mind, if mps who won their seats on a mandate to honour the referendum were true to that, then suspending parliament wouldn't be necessary. The last time this was threatened was by Blair so he could have his illegal war.
Yes, that's how I feel. Whether one agrees with Brexit or not, the supporters of it are playing the democracy card for all it's worth. Therefore it's a contradiction to suspend Parliament since that is undemocratic.
Comments
I'm not quite sure why so much is being made of how Bojo has got into Downing St, it seems perfectly logical and democratic to me that this should be the process, it would be similar whomever was in power and needed to replace a party leader and therefore PM.
With regards the current situation again, making proper preperations for a no deal Brexit is sensible, and should have been done from the offset by May, if the EU refuse to negotiate an acceptable agreement then there are only 2 choices and one of those has been turfed out of parliament on 3 occasions and not just by hard Brexiteers either iIrc the UK is legally obliged to pay 7 billion to the EU to cover our commitments, the 39 billion sweetheart payment looks like bad value for money based on the current withdrawal agreement and as such I think it's perfectly reasonable to say you would only pay what's legally required in the case of no deal being reached.
So far Bojo to my eye has come accross more prime ministerial and competent than I thought he ever could, his opening day in the house of commons was fascinating to watch, the opposition looked like rabbits in the headlights, I also approve of his cabinet choices more or less. I've always said a Johnson premiership would be either catastrophic or sublime, either way it will be entertaining, and after it all we will still all be here arguing about Bond come what may.
What has been agreed?
On 11th December 2017, the Prime Minister confirmed that the UK and the EU have agreed “the scope of commitments, and methods for valuations and adjustments to those values.” The calculations are an estimate of the UK’s commitments to the EU, valued according to a set of agreed principles. The bill is made up of:
The UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020;
Payment of outstanding commitments; and
Financing liabilities up to the end of 2020.
In November 2018 UK government and EU negotiators reached agreement over the UK’s withdrawal from the EU (the draft withdrawal agreement) which reaffirmed that the UK and EU have agreed that the UK will honour its commitments to the EU through a financial settlement.
The divorce bill is not binding until parliament approves the draft withdrawal agreement. That agreement has so far been rejected three times by the UK parliament.
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
The UK and EU agreed some principles for the settlement:
no EU Member State should pay more or receive less because of the UK's withdrawal from the EU;
the UK should pay its share of the commitments taken during its membership; and
the UK should neither pay more nor earlier than if it had remained a Member State.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8039
Your term
Is carefully chosen, because after a Hard Brexit, the UK will not be under EU justinction, so the EU could not sue for payments anymore.
A loophole which totally disregards, what the UK have promised, signed for and obliged over the years and your last PM has confirmed these obligations.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Over the years of the EU membership, the Uk have signed several commitments and obligations.
When Brexit was decided, part of the negotiations was to write down all these commitments and put them into an amount. After much work, both parties agreed, that the equivilent of these obligations has been set at around 39 billion GBP.
So, the UK signed for those obligations, no matter if a later check has been ratified or not by the UK parliament.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
They are 39 billion
Calling the difference between the 39 and 7 billion a „sweetheart deal“ is misleading
As an example, the UK pay 13 billion/year membership fees and the fiscal period (UK signed for the EU budget until 31.12.2020) ends 2020. so your amount of 7 does not even cover this.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Majority of experts see that stand as weak and without much substance.
Any you are mixing up the exit bill ( which has been mutually agreed) and the obligations during the EU membership.
There is no „goodwill factor“, during the EU membership, the UK commited to various obligations.
If you rent a house, you have obligations for the contract period. You can‘t just leave and stop paying.
And there is nothing more „goodwill“ then constantly threatening to ruin our economies and to sneak out of legally signed commitments
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
You can, it's called a rolling contract.
And if you rent a house for 2 years contract period, you can‘t just leave and stop paying after 13 months.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
And as I have stated earlier, these obligations may be internationally regarded like state bonds, failing to pay back like promised may have severe consequences for the national credit rating.
And it will be a very unfriendly move towards the EU and a trade deal will be almost impossible and even under Gatt regulations, the EU will have to cooperate.
You don‘t really expect the EU just to accept failure to follow obligations and just to move on?
Johnson may give you that illusion - it has nothing to do with reality.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Boris Johnson is a bumbling arse...and that’s an ‘appearance’ he’s cultivated for many years...truth is, he’s FAR worse than that...John Oliver showed him to be the calculating deviant he is...Andrew Neil took him apart in spectacular fashion quite easily...the UK will have to borrow BILLIONS to get out of the Brexit ‘no deal’ scenario - undoing the years of austerity the UK has been through to try and get back on an even keel...and some people will just sit back and laugh at Boris and his exploits, not realising we will ALL have to pay sometime
Hopefully the Conservative majority could be gone by next week -{
have one of these ....
..... and are so skilled at predicting the future,
This weeks lottery Numbers would be appreciated {[]
This will be my last comment on this thread, as I keep making enemies, it would appear to some
I'm an ultra right wing Fascist ( well nobody's perfect )
the two individuals, with no further contact -{ ..... If only to keep the peace, and let the debate run,
and run, and run, and run,and run, and run and ..............
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
If you could see inside I'm really crying....... You might join me for a weep.”
I find the "Goodwill" comment and expectation remarkable.
After abusing the EU for decades as a scapegoat for everything that is going wrong, your current PM calling the EU "Like Hitler" and many more insults came our way, the UK decided to leave.
Again, the UK decided to leave!
All comments, that after a Brexit, the main asset - the Common Market - will not be available anymore have been put down as scaremongering "because the german car companies still want to sell their cars and will pressure the bureaucrats".
The UK were campaigning unprepared, they showed up totally unprepared at the negotiations and still don't have anything substantial decided, what they want and how they want to exit.
There was a Brexit Date in March and the EU could have let jump the UK over the edge with No Deal by not agreeing with the extension.
Another extension was granted some weeks later because "We will not push anybody out of the Union".
And you complain about a lack of goodwill?
The negotiations were intense and long, there is an agreement which the UK are not able to ratify - and now you complain about a lack of "goodwill" on the EU side?
With "Goodwill" you certainly mean that we should offer you the common market for free, without all the obligations and rules that the other EU members are forced to comply with - and are paying membership fees for.
This won't happen!
Leave our Union, insult us for decades, threatening to ruin our economies and our Union, spread lies about us and call us propagandists, undemocratic, bureaucraty, slow, evil - kick us in the gut and kick us in the balls, threaten to ruin our economies and not to pay what was duly agreed on and signed for, threaten us with a tax competition down to the bottom and then complain about the lack of "Goodwill" from our side.
When I am speaking with my friends in France, Spain, Austria and here they all are just shaking their heads.
But the Brexiteers know everything better.
Sometimes, I wonder if you must be a Brit to still defend what is going on there...
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Do you really expect, that a Union like the EU, with an annual budget of 141 billion Euros will give up their rules and principles over a sum of less than 30 billion (Part of the 39 billion GBP have been paid off during the first 7 months) just because some Brexiteers in phantasyland are pretending to play hardball and press them to ruin their own country for decades with a Hard Brexit?
It did not work with the blackmailing with the German cars, it won't work with the final bill and failing to follow international agreements will have severe consequences for the UK. No matter, what is "legally obliged" or not in a questionable legal position.
The Brexiteers have totally overplayed their band right from the beginning and have driven themselves into a corner where they have no alternative to acting more and more crazy and radical. Not that it'll help them anyhow.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
The EU budget is set until end of 2020.
The 39 billion GBP is not calculated in in any budget plans because the British parliament did not ratify the deal.
The UK pay around 13 billion/year, the public sector receives around 4,5 billion, the private sector receives around 2,5 billion.
13-7= 6 billion annual*, so until end of 2020 there are around 9 billion missing if the UK stopped paying right now.
And annually 6 billion out of 141 billion annually would be missing in the future.
It‘s a lot of money, but won‘t give the UK any stronger negotiation power, no matter what the Brexiteers are wishfully thinking of.
I have just made this calculations, before someone smarter than me comes up and tells me that 30 billion is a hefty amount in 141 billion.
It‘s always good to look a bit deeper into details.
* and now compare 6 or 7 billion annually with all the costs that are related to Brexit.
The preparations, information campaigns, the new border staff and so on.
Are you sure that you are better off without the EU?
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Turns out Boris might be in need of a backstop after all!
We need a Barnes Wallis in reverse.
Roger Moore 1927-2017
Meanwhile Diane (calamity) Abbott questions how BoJo will pay for the extra police he's promised..... Stating that his sums don't add up, but never questioned how Corbyn was going to fund buying student votes by writing off student loans, or buy back all the railways and power companies! But then this is the woman who reckoned employing 3000 more police officers would only cost £300,000 per year
Donald Tusk
I am still waiting for B. Johnson putting the „alternative solutions“ for checking the borders on the table, or would that be too simple?
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Well, according to your Chancellor Angela Merkel Boris Johnson has a month to come up with these technical solutions to the Irish border issue in order to avoid a no deal Brexit and the so-called hard border on the island of Ireland.
That seems fair enough as a no deal Brexit is to be avoided so I just hope Johnson can satisfy the EU leaders in this regard in the time remaining that he has graciously been given by Germany and France. It is in both the interests of the UK and the EU that we get this thing sorted once and for all time and leave on 31 October 2019 with the right deal for both parties.
Not sure if 30 more days will make it, however the backstop was only put into the agreement incase that there is no technical solution for the irish border issue.
Boris Johnson was swinging the well known threats at the G7 and he has been asked several time how he wants to solve that issue. Let‘s remember, the UK wants to leave, so they should have a plan how not to fuel up the Ireland conflict again.
He was dancing around the question with no proper reply.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
To my mind, if mps who won their seats on a mandate to honour the referendum were true to that, then suspending parliament wouldn't be necessary. The last time this was threatened was by Blair so he could have his illegal war.