All seems a little closer today. My old nursery teacher died yesterday of it. Her daughter who is my age is in intensive care.
Sorry to hear that.
First confirmed case in Falklands yesterday (serviceman now isolated in Stanley hospital but appears to be ok at the moment). All out tests have to go back to the UK labs so a bit of a nightmare time wise
Another aspect of the epidemic is surveilance. Both Russia and China are using cameras and facial recognition technology to check people's movements and behaviour to stop the spread of the virus. The technology even recognises people with masks. I suspect the surveilance will stay after the epidemic is over.
My best friend lives in Spain, he's in the Rioja region and I've been talking to him most days.
What is he telling you?
With regard what? He's described the Lockdown and how the police are reacting, obviously the sheet upset at the amount of deaths. But he reckons its so bad over there because a large portion of the population live in apartments and so people are close together, which also makes the Lockdown harder to cope with.
On an economic front he thinks Spain will be very badly hit, in the resorts the bars and restaurants we're already struggling due to all inclusive holidays at the hotels, and he estimates at least 40% of the businesses in some resorts will not open again. The police there it seems have been quite proactive or as he put it heavy handed in dealing with those who have flouted the Lockdown.
Also worth saying as Higgins may want to comment. In Spain it is being reported that the figures for Coronavirus being put forward by Germany are not final figures and that in Germany there is an emphasis on testing younger people more than elderly, and that is why the mortality in Germany is much lower. Just like to say, I haven't seen this reported in the UK and I'm only relaying what I've been told from Spain. What is obvious is that every country seems to be tackling this pandemic in different ways.
I feel really sorry for all the countries that don't have a lot of money in an enormous fund like my country has. Here the government is handeling out billions to keep businesses and individuals afloat, but bankruptcies are happening anyway. Italy and Spain were nearly broke before the Corona crisis, I can't imagine how businesses can cope there.
I feel really sorry for all the countries that don't have a lot of money in an enormous fund like my country has. Here the government is handeling out billions to keep businesses and individuals afloat, but bankruptcies are happening anyway. Italy and Spain were nearly broke before the Corona crisis, I can't imagine how businesses can cope there.
I'm just talking to him now, Lockdown ahs been extended to the 26th of April in Spain. And their figures have now overtaken Italy
The Government is being advised what course of action to take by a large team of scientists led by Sir Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance, Jenny Harries to name but 3, as has been pointed out on many daily briefings the government's response has been in line with the advice given. The Chief medical Officer role is not political and the advice would have been the same despite which party was in power, they are essentially civil servants and authorities in their field of expertise. So yes the instructions given by the UK government are based on the advice of the scientists, it's the scientists who have decided to pursue the herd immunity and the timescale of any lockdown. This isn't conjecture but a simple fact and is also a matter of public record and open to scrutiny by people who have the legal privilege to access the records.
The Government is being advised what course of action to take by a large team of scientists led by Sir Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance, Jenny Harries to name but 3, as has been pointed out on many daily briefings the government's response has been in line with the advice given. The Chief medical Officer role is not political and the advice would have been the same despite which party was in power, they are essentially civil servants and authorities in their field of expertise. So yes the instructions given by the UK government are based on the advice of the scientists, it's the scientists who have decided to pursue the herd immunity and the timescale of any lockdown. This isn't conjecture but a simple fact and is also a matter of public record and open to scrutiny by people who have the legal privilege to access the records.
This may all be true, but let's imagine for a second that the Tories were not in the leading role but others - or if that would have happened in other countries:
The outrage would be high ->> how can they follow the ridiculous advice of some civil servant advisers while most of the civilised world refuses to go for herd immunity because it's unethical and too risky!!!!<< - and you would be the first to point that out!
This is all true what you say, CC, but Johnson and his team (In particular this Dominic Cummings guy) deliberately chose to go for herd immunity (reasons may be the bad condition of the NHS or simply the potential economic damage of a lockdown) - in contrary to most of the scientists here in Europe and the world.
They radically changed course with that human experiment because it's gotten out of control for them and they, Johnson and his team and the Tory Party are responsible and accountable for the loss of life which could be prevented if they'd followed course of other western societies.
Don't try to find excuses for government failure and blame some civil servant scientists who gave advice.
Johnson calls the shots and no-one else ! He is responsible and deflecting to scientists is just out of the handbook of the populists.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Also worth saying as Higgins may want to comment. In Spain it is being reported that the figures for Coronavirus being put forward by Germany are not final figures and that in Germany there is an emphasis on testing younger people more than elderly, and that is why the mortality in Germany is much lower. Just like to say, I haven't seen this reported in the UK and I'm only relaying what I've been told from Spain. What is obvious is that every country seems to be tackling this pandemic in different ways.
That does not make sense at all!
Why would testing only young people drop the mortality rate?
If someone dies of Corona, they are being counted - no matter of old or not.
Our health system is too tight to underreport in significant numbers (there may be cases of incorrect reporting of cause of death in all countries, but that by a small margin here definitely).
One of the reasons why our fatality is relatively low is, that right from the beginning, testing and tracking down was done in very high numbers and distancing started at an early stage.
Also our government was absolutely transparent and clear and very early in February about what was to come and what the measures will be.
We also appear to be 7-14 days later "in the curve" than Spain or Italy, situation is getting more and more serious here as well - we are not over yet!
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Why would testing only young people drop the mortality rate?
If someone dies of Corona, they are being counted - no matter of old or not.
If you testing only young people, the old ones who are dying now would not be counted as a corona-death no matter what the cause of death (f.e. corona) really is, I think that is what they mean, but I agree with you that the low death rate is because of early testing and tracking and as you mentioned the curve is still rising and who knows how many deaths germany and other countries have in two weeks or more
Also worth saying as Higgins may want to comment. In Spain it is being reported that the figures for Coronavirus being put forward by Germany are not final figures and that in Germany there is an emphasis on testing younger people more than elderly, and that is why the mortality in Germany is much lower. Just like to say, I haven't seen this reported in the UK and I'm only relaying what I've been told from Spain. What is obvious is that every country seems to be tackling this pandemic in different ways.
That does not make sense at all!
Why would testing only young people drop the mortality rate?
If someone dies of Corona, they are being counted - no matter of old or not.
Our health system is too tight to underreport in significant numbers (there may be cases of incorrect reporting of cause of death in all countries, but that by a small margin here definitely).
One of the reasons why our fatality is relatively low is, that right from the beginning, testing and tracking down was done in very high numbers and distancing started at an early stage.
Also our government was absolutely transparent and clear and very early in February about what was to come and what the measures will be.
We also appear to be 7-14 days later "in the curve" than Spain or Italy, situation is getting more and more serious here as well - we are not over yet!
I hope Germany does buck the trend and the fatality rate stays very low, god knows it would be a good news story and the world needs one of those, but as far as I can gather, in Germany the virus started as a skiers issue and as such relatively young people were the ones getting infected which led to them being tested and they recovered or reported mild symptoms , but as we all know Germany has carried out far more tests than most if not all other countries so that gives a lower fatality %. That was days ago now though and as you say, the virus is spreading. I can only wish Germany the very best as I do all countries, this pandemic is a human issue not a political or nationalistic one.
This may all be true, but let's imagine for a second that the Tories were not in the leading role but others - or if that would have happened in other countries:
The outrage would be high ->> how can they follow the ridiculous advice of some civil servant advisers while most of the civilised world refuses to go for herd immunity because it's unethical and too risky!!!!<< - and you would be the first to point that out!
This is all true what you say, CC, but Johnson and his team (In particular this Dominic Cummings guy) deliberately chose to go for herd immunity (reasons may be the bad condition of the NHS or simply the potential economic damage of a lockdown) - in contrary to most of the scientists here in Europe and the world.
They radically changed course with that human experiment because it's gotten out of control for them and they, Johnson and his team and the Tory Party are responsible and accountable for the loss of life which could be prevented if they'd followed course of other western societies.
Don't try to find excuses for government failure and blame some civil servant scientists who gave advice.
Johnson calls the shots and no-one else ! He is responsible and deflecting to scientists is just out of the handbook of the populists.
That my friend is bunch of unquantifiable horse crap. The scientists are renowned and civil servants is a term that describes their employment role, they aren't governmental and their advice would have been the same regardless of who was in power, and it would be a very brave or stupid PM who went against the advice of such people. Such things as this are outside the remit of political minds.
As said, if the UK government was Labour, you‘d be singing a totally different tune.
You call my statements horsecrap - that does not make them wrong.
But if it makes you feel better - be my guest.
The scientific advises where broadly available and what the UK did was regarded as being too risky and unethical in most of the other states.
Johnson chose to gamble - based on the advise of his civil servant scientists, and he‘s the one who is reponsible for the failure. And it was a failure because 10 days ago, he changed course 180
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Having spoken to advisors for PMs the advising usually goes like that:
The head of state usually asks what his options are and I am sure that the civil servants informed him about the possible options, about their negatives and positives.
Then the head of state makes his decisions, which of the options on the table is the best to follow.
I doubt, that his advisors explicitely advised (they may have told him their personal opinion though) to go to one direction or another, but for sure they where transparent about the wider picture and the potential pros and cons.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
If we look at Germany's numbers they have a high number of infected but a relatively low number of dead. The best way I can explain this is a high level of testing. The number of dead can take some time before they are correct. Sweden reported about five hundered, but after checking more cases in the weekend then number was changed to just above seven hundred. I don't know if this will happen in Germany.
It happened in Germany as well, but not to a larger degree.
The reason is that the Robert Koch Institut (Germany bases their official numbers on the RKI) usually is relatively slow in reporting and their sources are reporting slowly, too.
Johns Hopkins institute usually relies on other sources and usually shows higher numbers than RKI who are slowly following behind.
Not sure if the same happened in Sweden or if infos are deliberately surpressed.
President of the 'Misty Eyes Club'.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
I don't think the Swedish numbers are deliberately surpressed. It's not their style. It's more likely a question of cases that weren't regiistered as Corona on the day because they couldn't say for sure yet. Norwegian numbers are also corrected after a few days, but Our numbers are much lowere than in Sweden.
Sir MilesThe Wrong Side Of The WardrobePosts: 27,749Chief of Staff
Comments
Sorry to hear that.
First confirmed case in Falklands yesterday (serviceman now isolated in Stanley hospital but appears to be ok at the moment). All out tests have to go back to the UK labs so a bit of a nightmare time wise
Sad news.
Well, the flu doesn’t put a whole family in hospital. That puts it into perspective.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
On an economic front he thinks Spain will be very badly hit, in the resorts the bars and restaurants we're already struggling due to all inclusive holidays at the hotels, and he estimates at least 40% of the businesses in some resorts will not open again. The police there it seems have been quite proactive or as he put it heavy handed in dealing with those who have flouted the Lockdown.
Great post & well said -{
The outrage would be high ->> how can they follow the ridiculous advice of some civil servant advisers while most of the civilised world refuses to go for herd immunity because it's unethical and too risky!!!!<< - and you would be the first to point that out!
This is all true what you say, CC, but Johnson and his team (In particular this Dominic Cummings guy) deliberately chose to go for herd immunity (reasons may be the bad condition of the NHS or simply the potential economic damage of a lockdown) - in contrary to most of the scientists here in Europe and the world.
They radically changed course with that human experiment because it's gotten out of control for them and they, Johnson and his team and the Tory Party are responsible and accountable for the loss of life which could be prevented if they'd followed course of other western societies.
Don't try to find excuses for government failure and blame some civil servant scientists who gave advice.
Johnson calls the shots and no-one else ! He is responsible and deflecting to scientists is just out of the handbook of the populists.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
That does not make sense at all!
Why would testing only young people drop the mortality rate?
If someone dies of Corona, they are being counted - no matter of old or not.
Our health system is too tight to underreport in significant numbers (there may be cases of incorrect reporting of cause of death in all countries, but that by a small margin here definitely).
One of the reasons why our fatality is relatively low is, that right from the beginning, testing and tracking down was done in very high numbers and distancing started at an early stage.
Also our government was absolutely transparent and clear and very early in February about what was to come and what the measures will be.
We also appear to be 7-14 days later "in the curve" than Spain or Italy, situation is getting more and more serious here as well - we are not over yet!
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
If you testing only young people, the old ones who are dying now would not be counted as a corona-death no matter what the cause of death (f.e. corona) really is, I think that is what they mean, but I agree with you that the low death rate is because of early testing and tracking and as you mentioned the curve is still rising and who knows how many deaths germany and other countries have in two weeks or more
I say that the guy from Spain should stop reading crap on social media and articles by the angry people.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
Oh physician heal thyself
I hope Germany does buck the trend and the fatality rate stays very low, god knows it would be a good news story and the world needs one of those, but as far as I can gather, in Germany the virus started as a skiers issue and as such relatively young people were the ones getting infected which led to them being tested and they recovered or reported mild symptoms , but as we all know Germany has carried out far more tests than most if not all other countries so that gives a lower fatality %. That was days ago now though and as you say, the virus is spreading. I can only wish Germany the very best as I do all countries, this pandemic is a human issue not a political or nationalistic one.
You call my statements horsecrap - that does not make them wrong.
But if it makes you feel better - be my guest.
The scientific advises where broadly available and what the UK did was regarded as being too risky and unethical in most of the other states.
Johnson chose to gamble - based on the advise of his civil servant scientists, and he‘s the one who is reponsible for the failure. And it was a failure because 10 days ago, he changed course 180
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
The head of state usually asks what his options are and I am sure that the civil servants informed him about the possible options, about their negatives and positives.
Then the head of state makes his decisions, which of the options on the table is the best to follow.
I doubt, that his advisors explicitely advised (they may have told him their personal opinion though) to go to one direction or another, but for sure they where transparent about the wider picture and the potential pros and cons.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
The reason is that the Robert Koch Institut (Germany bases their official numbers on the RKI) usually is relatively slow in reporting and their sources are reporting slowly, too.
Johns Hopkins institute usually relies on other sources and usually shows higher numbers than RKI who are slowly following behind.
Not sure if the same happened in Sweden or if infos are deliberately surpressed.
Dalton - the weak and weepy Bond!
And the award of Post of the Day goes to....