I truly don't expect another Bond film with Craig. The only scenario where I see that happening is if Craig's film career is flagging and the Bond producers fear a box office disaster without him and somehow dangle enough money to make it worth Craig's wile while, perhaps, agreeing to finance some vanity projects he has. I just think the writers have left enough at the end of No Time to Die for the possibility, remote as it may be.
...or they've left enough at the end for the next Bond film (post extravagant but-lower-budget PTS), to have the new Bond toss his hat onto the hat stand, flirt with Naomi Harris at her desk, stroll through the padded door into Ralph Fiennes' office to be greeted with: "Ah, 007, good to see you back and fully recovered from that nasty explosion, bullet wounds, and that nanobot business, although looking a little different, might I say? Now, Bond, we are having a spot of bother with a peculiar chap in the Caribbean named No, Doctor Julius No..."
Imaginary? Imaginary, my good man? Why I'll have you know that Babs has me working on the script as we speak. Not to give too much away, but the lower-budget PTS is comprised of a chase through a Reading shopping centre on e-scooters, including - wait for it! - the wrong way on an escalator, believe it or not!!
Couple of things - there can't be much 'buzz' about this film because to be fair many are very good at suppressing spoilers, so there won't be much to talk about, you can't talk about it!
Secondly, those who love it may not want to go again, compared to Bond fans who dislike it and won't go several times. That said, many are saying they'll go multiple times so who can say? It is a long movie to sit through twice however.
The "buzz" to which I referred was the buzz of excitement that it was opening or playing and friends, family, and co-workers who aren't raving Bond fans being eager to go and see it. That buzz is there now for Dune even amongst people I know who couldn't tell you who Frank Herbert was, think Denis Villeneuve was a racing car driver, and aren't even big sci-fi buffs, but even in the weeks or days leading up to NTTD things were subdued. I thought that would change once it opened, but it really didn't. Now I know that many people got out of the habit of going to the cinema because of Covid and many of those still haven't got into the habit of returning, but the lack of buzz for a Bond film - especially for one following on from the box office success of Spectre and Skyfall which appealed to even non-Bond fans (not to mention it being DC's last 007 outing) - was surprising and disappointing to me.
Perhaps things would have picked-up thanks to word of mouth once it opened, but, as you say NP, there has been less word of mouth than normal because there isn't much to talk about without revealing pretty massive spoilers. Or maybe there has been word of mouth and that has been what has been putting people off going. I'm only speaking of people I know, but NTTD has been received unlike any Bond film in my life.
LoeffelholzThe United States, With LovePosts: 8,998Quartermasters
edited October 2021
Going to see NTTD for a third time tomorrow...with someone who - amazingly - hasn't had it spoiled for her. I hope it has better legs than its detractors predict...but either way - like OHMSS, symmetrically - I believe it will loom large in the rear-view mirror of Bond history, as will Craigger's very polarizing (but undeniably successful) tenure.
"Give him a chance." - Loeffelholz, circa 2005
Check out my Amazon author page!Mark Loeffelholz
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
I don't think NTTD will loom large at all. It's already fully enclosed (or trapped) in its own continuity and has taken Bond's personal life as far as the series can go without sabotaging its fantasy appeal. Perhaps the wisest thing future Bond films could do is ignore NTTD.
In the 70s and 80s the Bond films felt the need to acknowledge OHMSS because the series still maintained loose continuity. Though DAF was deliberately ambiguous about its predecessor's existence, during the Roger Moore era OHMSS was used to establish the continuity between different Bond actors and films. The references to Bond's wife in TSWLM and FYEO connected the Moore era to OHMSS, which was in turn connected to the Connery films. The same applies to LTK's reference to Bond being married. OHMSS was used by the series to show Bond was the same character with the same adventures no matter who played him, and that the series' continuity transcended the actors who played Bond.
NTTD send the exact opposite message. It can't be used like OHMSS to build continuity or tradition. The film is the end of the line for its continuity and will cause the series to be rebooted. Not just because Bond died, but because Bond can't run around with a wife and kid waiting at home for him. Future Bond films are not going to reference this. NTTD will also cause a course correction because there's nothing left to do with Bond's personal life. We've already seen him meet the love of his life and have a kid. What's left?
For all these reasons, NTTD might be eventually seen as a dead-end street for James Bond, regardless of its quality. And I doubt future Bond films will be stealing dialogue or entire songs from it. It will remain in the shadow of OHMSS.
I don't know. NTTD to appears to be doing very well in Europe and China while it still hasn't even opened in some other markets. US box office may be disappointing and lower than projected but it's not a disaster. The run time certainly isn't helping with reduced showings and of course there's always COVID and the age group that Bond appears to skew to these days in the US. The film also had a very difficult and troubled gestation period before filming even began which helped fuel tons of negative speculation on the internet which continued during the actual production with all the "woke" and "neutered" Bond stuff. If you believed some of that nonsense it felt like Bond was going to be a supporting character in NTTD. That even continued when the film was actually released with click bait headlines reinforcing the "woke" and "neutered" stuff by people who hadn't even actually seen the film yet. That all being said, I think that EON / Craig probably did more damage to the films box office by how bloody long it took to finally get the film rolling at all. Throw in the departure of the original director and writer and having to start over and then just the plain bad luck of a worldwide pandemic...well you certainly set the stage for a bit of a disappointment at the box office. I've only seen it once and probably will not see it again in a theater primarily because I am just not completely comfortable with taking another chance with COVID, not because I disliked it. I saw all the other Craig films multiple times in theaters. Another reason, like quite a few other people I know, invested in a much bigger television (75" 4K) and installed 5.1 channel surround sound in my home, ironically partially fueled by the possibility of NTTD going directly to VOD. I will do my subsequent viewings of NTTD via the 4k Blu Ray when it comes out. IMO, it's a flawed, but still good Bond film with more than it's share of actual brilliance. Ultimately, it will turn a profit and James Bond will be back in some form one way or another.
No Time to Die will make a profit -- the only real question is how much. In this case, though, it seems to be dropping further in the U.S. Forbes is revising its expectations by about $30 million less than original predictions, though the writer notes that Bond will pass the $500 million worldwide mark this weekend and likely still end up grossing more than CR and QoS:
"No Time to Die earned another $3.579 million on its third Friday, dropping 50% and setting itself up for a $12 million (-50%) third-weekend gross. That’ll give the 25th official James Bond movie a $120 million 17-day cume, with expectations now closer to $155 million than $185 million for a domestic finish."
This should allay most of your concerns, though...there is no universe in which making a profit at this point in time isn't seen as a wild success by the studio and others. Also, ultimately the US market has never been as kind or important to Bond as the commensurate volume of media coverage would suggest.
Very good points. European, Asian, and other currency count at the office too and in the end it all adds up. While the US still has the most cinema screens in the world, other countries still have significant numbers of screens and tend to fill those seats better when it comes to Bond. IMAX is also very, very popular in China (most big Chinese films get IMAX releases in China and even some non-Chinese films have gotten exclusive China only releases in IMAX....which bodes well for NTTD.
So is No Time to Die set to be the biggest Bond flop at the box office? After a month in, it's hit $520m, nowhere near Spectre's $880m+ or Skyfall's $1b return. Apparently the film needs to hit $800 or 900+ just to break even or make any profit.. pandemic is generally clear, so what's gone wrong? After inflation is this the lowest grossing Bond film? It seems that's the case
While things may be on the upturn regarding the pandemic, unfortunately it is far from over, especially in some areas of the US where infection and hospitalization rates are still relatively high. The other thing to consider is that the pandemic has changed people's viewing habits relative to venue, especially the somewhat unfortunate aging demographic of Bond. Of course, all things considered, there was a time that we faced the very real possibility that NTTD would never get out to cinemas and go directly to VOD. There were some who posted here who actually were of a mind that EON should do just that to just get the film out.
LoeffelholzThe United States, With LovePosts: 8,998Quartermasters
edited October 2021
NTTD has unquestionably been hurt by the [expletive deleted], but will hopefully get closer to cost than it currently is. Without the delays and [expletive and politics deleted] , it would have done numbers on a par with SP, at least, in my humble opinion - a tidy profit, considering that production loan interest wouldn't have been incurred.
Still...it is what it is. And what it is...will grow in the rear-view mirror of posterity. At least, I think it will.
Check out my Amazon author page!Mark Loeffelholz
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Despite China being the world’s largest movie venue and western films like Bond being popular, Skyfall grossed about $60 million and Spectre about $84 million, not adjusted for inflation, there. In Australia, the numbers were about $50 million and $75 million, not adjusted for inflation.
For the sake of argument, let’s just say $100 million each, taking into account inflation and the pandemic, for NTTD. Added to the current $550 million worldwide take, that would be $750 million. Let’s assume it earns another $75 million in the U.S. and comparably in the rest of the international markets. That would put it at $900 million. This would be the upper end of the break even point most analysts say it must meet. NTTD will make a profit, but it will take more time and likely mostly come from ancillary sales of DVDs, streaming, and TV broadcasts. In fact, I suspect it will be shown regularly on cable for years, and it will likely do better business streaming or on demand.
Had they not taken so long to make it, and had it debuted in late 2018 or early to mid 2019, not only would the box office have been strong, I suspect, but it might even have been even more profitable through various home sales later since so many people stayed out of theaters once the pandemic cranked up. The footdragging to get it made likely will cost the studio more in unrealized box office than they’ll ever care to admit. But it will make money. But gone are the days when a Bond film makes four, five, or more times its production and marketing costs at the box office.
in Ontario, the government allowed full capacity at movie theatres the same day the movie finally began playing. For this reason amongst others, I waited two weeks to see it, then chose to see the first matinee on a weekday, which was the cheaper regular version, rather than the more expensive 3d version which was only showing in the evening. The manager was checking vaccine passports at the door, and had a similar attitude to all those restaurant owners who are so desperately grateful to see any customers return at all. He said I was not the only one who had waited til "crowds died down", and I get the idea the legal change to permitting full capacity might have had the perverse effect of scaring away potential customers who would have preferred enforced social distancing in the theatre, especially amongst the demographic expected for a BondFilm.
Lesson to be learned? They should just let this film run in the theatres for months, like they used to in the 70s, rather than expecting it to break box office records in the opening weekend as has been practice in recent years. The situation has changed thanks to COVID, and that whole expectation to break records the opening weekend was leading to crappier and crappier films anyway.
It depends in part on what happens with the pandemic -- last winter in the U.S., cases spiked as people went indoors but so many were unvaccinated and refused to wear masks and social distance. This summer, we saw cases in the U.S. reach the same levels, which was a considerable jump over the summer period the year before. And this was after more people were vaccinated. All that portends for a challenging winter this year.
Of course, we can't predict with certainty. Some experts are saying they actually think cases will go down this winter. My gut says they're wrong, but we'll see. But if the pandemic rears up again and worse than last winter, people -- especially the older ones who go to see Bond -- may start to avoid theaters again. That will include the holiday periods when movies traditionally make much of their money.
I just saw om the news that this has been the best October in this millennium for the cinemas here in Norway, much because of NTTD and the home-grown Cannes winner "The worst person in the world". Has other countries seen comparable results for the cinemas?
That's a really good question. All I'm finding right now is that NTTD crossed the $600 million mark worldwide but that box office was off projections in China. It's harder to say, too, because it's not clear if numbers are always adjusted for inflation or if ticket prices and the like are higher to make comparisons to the past. I have, however, read some articles that suggest NTTD is tracking closer to Spectre with box office results than to Skyfall, which even if not adjusted for inflation is so far more successful.
Yeah, but tbf wasn't Skyfall the most successful Bond film ever, outstripping previous title holder Thunderball? And the most successful British film ever? Tough one to beat.
Comments
I truly don't expect another Bond film with Craig. The only scenario where I see that happening is if Craig's film career is flagging and the Bond producers fear a box office disaster without him and somehow dangle enough money to make it worth Craig's wile while, perhaps, agreeing to finance some vanity projects he has. I just think the writers have left enough at the end of No Time to Die for the possibility, remote as it may be.
...or they've left enough at the end for the next Bond film (post extravagant but-lower-budget PTS), to have the new Bond toss his hat onto the hat stand, flirt with Naomi Harris at her desk, stroll through the padded door into Ralph Fiennes' office to be greeted with: "Ah, 007, good to see you back and fully recovered from that nasty explosion, bullet wounds, and that nanobot business, although looking a little different, might I say? Now, Bond, we are having a spot of bother with a peculiar chap in the Caribbean named No, Doctor Julius No..."
Thank you, TDE, that'll make a nice Imaginary Conversation soon. ☺️
Or Bond could walk in to see Moneypenny and M and say……. That last mission……nearly killed me!
Craig has Knives Out sequels galore
Imaginary? Imaginary, my good man? Why I'll have you know that Babs has me working on the script as we speak. Not to give too much away, but the lower-budget PTS is comprised of a chase through a Reading shopping centre on e-scooters, including - wait for it! - the wrong way on an escalator, believe it or not!!
😁😁😁 Well, I hope she won't mind too much...
She's happy with it, Barbel, as long as I guarantee that it's the largest e-scooter/escalator stunt ever put to film!
e-scooters?!...no need to make it look like an accident 007, just sit back and wait...
Imaginary Conversations - Page 57 — ajb007
Is this thread about the box office?
Couple of things - there can't be much 'buzz' about this film because to be fair many are very good at suppressing spoilers, so there won't be much to talk about, you can't talk about it!
Secondly, those who love it may not want to go again, compared to Bond fans who dislike it and won't go several times. That said, many are saying they'll go multiple times so who can say? It is a long movie to sit through twice however.
Roger Moore 1927-2017
The "buzz" to which I referred was the buzz of excitement that it was opening or playing and friends, family, and co-workers who aren't raving Bond fans being eager to go and see it. That buzz is there now for Dune even amongst people I know who couldn't tell you who Frank Herbert was, think Denis Villeneuve was a racing car driver, and aren't even big sci-fi buffs, but even in the weeks or days leading up to NTTD things were subdued. I thought that would change once it opened, but it really didn't. Now I know that many people got out of the habit of going to the cinema because of Covid and many of those still haven't got into the habit of returning, but the lack of buzz for a Bond film - especially for one following on from the box office success of Spectre and Skyfall which appealed to even non-Bond fans (not to mention it being DC's last 007 outing) - was surprising and disappointing to me.
Perhaps things would have picked-up thanks to word of mouth once it opened, but, as you say NP, there has been less word of mouth than normal because there isn't much to talk about without revealing pretty massive spoilers. Or maybe there has been word of mouth and that has been what has been putting people off going. I'm only speaking of people I know, but NTTD has been received unlike any Bond film in my life.
Going to see NTTD for a third time tomorrow...with someone who - amazingly - hasn't had it spoiled for her. I hope it has better legs than its detractors predict...but either way - like OHMSS, symmetrically - I believe it will loom large in the rear-view mirror of Bond history, as will Craigger's very polarizing (but undeniably successful) tenure.
"Give him a chance." - Loeffelholz, circa 2005
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
I don't think NTTD will loom large at all. It's already fully enclosed (or trapped) in its own continuity and has taken Bond's personal life as far as the series can go without sabotaging its fantasy appeal. Perhaps the wisest thing future Bond films could do is ignore NTTD.
In the 70s and 80s the Bond films felt the need to acknowledge OHMSS because the series still maintained loose continuity. Though DAF was deliberately ambiguous about its predecessor's existence, during the Roger Moore era OHMSS was used to establish the continuity between different Bond actors and films. The references to Bond's wife in TSWLM and FYEO connected the Moore era to OHMSS, which was in turn connected to the Connery films. The same applies to LTK's reference to Bond being married. OHMSS was used by the series to show Bond was the same character with the same adventures no matter who played him, and that the series' continuity transcended the actors who played Bond.
NTTD send the exact opposite message. It can't be used like OHMSS to build continuity or tradition. The film is the end of the line for its continuity and will cause the series to be rebooted. Not just because Bond died, but because Bond can't run around with a wife and kid waiting at home for him. Future Bond films are not going to reference this. NTTD will also cause a course correction because there's nothing left to do with Bond's personal life. We've already seen him meet the love of his life and have a kid. What's left?
For all these reasons, NTTD might be eventually seen as a dead-end street for James Bond, regardless of its quality. And I doubt future Bond films will be stealing dialogue or entire songs from it. It will remain in the shadow of OHMSS.
NTTD was the number 1 film in the USA on Wednesday. Only took about $2.2M though.
What only on Wednesday ?
I don't know. NTTD to appears to be doing very well in Europe and China while it still hasn't even opened in some other markets. US box office may be disappointing and lower than projected but it's not a disaster. The run time certainly isn't helping with reduced showings and of course there's always COVID and the age group that Bond appears to skew to these days in the US. The film also had a very difficult and troubled gestation period before filming even began which helped fuel tons of negative speculation on the internet which continued during the actual production with all the "woke" and "neutered" Bond stuff. If you believed some of that nonsense it felt like Bond was going to be a supporting character in NTTD. That even continued when the film was actually released with click bait headlines reinforcing the "woke" and "neutered" stuff by people who hadn't even actually seen the film yet. That all being said, I think that EON / Craig probably did more damage to the films box office by how bloody long it took to finally get the film rolling at all. Throw in the departure of the original director and writer and having to start over and then just the plain bad luck of a worldwide pandemic...well you certainly set the stage for a bit of a disappointment at the box office. I've only seen it once and probably will not see it again in a theater primarily because I am just not completely comfortable with taking another chance with COVID, not because I disliked it. I saw all the other Craig films multiple times in theaters. Another reason, like quite a few other people I know, invested in a much bigger television (75" 4K) and installed 5.1 channel surround sound in my home, ironically partially fueled by the possibility of NTTD going directly to VOD. I will do my subsequent viewings of NTTD via the 4k Blu Ray when it comes out. IMO, it's a flawed, but still good Bond film with more than it's share of actual brilliance. Ultimately, it will turn a profit and James Bond will be back in some form one way or another.
No Time to Die will make a profit -- the only real question is how much. In this case, though, it seems to be dropping further in the U.S. Forbes is revising its expectations by about $30 million less than original predictions, though the writer notes that Bond will pass the $500 million worldwide mark this weekend and likely still end up grossing more than CR and QoS:
"No Time to Die earned another $3.579 million on its third Friday, dropping 50% and setting itself up for a $12 million (-50%) third-weekend gross. That’ll give the 25th official James Bond movie a $120 million 17-day cume, with expectations now closer to $155 million than $185 million for a domestic finish."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/10/23/friday-box-office-halloween-kills-plunges-80-as-no-time-to-die-tops-500m-venom-2-tops-300m/?sh=42a9a2cf1680
This should allay most of your concerns, though...there is no universe in which making a profit at this point in time isn't seen as a wild success by the studio and others. Also, ultimately the US market has never been as kind or important to Bond as the commensurate volume of media coverage would suggest.
Very good points. European, Asian, and other currency count at the office too and in the end it all adds up. While the US still has the most cinema screens in the world, other countries still have significant numbers of screens and tend to fill those seats better when it comes to Bond. IMAX is also very, very popular in China (most big Chinese films get IMAX releases in China and even some non-Chinese films have gotten exclusive China only releases in IMAX....which bodes well for NTTD.
So is No Time to Die set to be the biggest Bond flop at the box office? After a month in, it's hit $520m, nowhere near Spectre's $880m+ or Skyfall's $1b return. Apparently the film needs to hit $800 or 900+ just to break even or make any profit.. pandemic is generally clear, so what's gone wrong? After inflation is this the lowest grossing Bond film? It seems that's the case
While things may be on the upturn regarding the pandemic, unfortunately it is far from over, especially in some areas of the US where infection and hospitalization rates are still relatively high. The other thing to consider is that the pandemic has changed people's viewing habits relative to venue, especially the somewhat unfortunate aging demographic of Bond. Of course, all things considered, there was a time that we faced the very real possibility that NTTD would never get out to cinemas and go directly to VOD. There were some who posted here who actually were of a mind that EON should do just that to just get the film out.
Still without China and Australia however.
NTTD has unquestionably been hurt by the [expletive deleted], but will hopefully get closer to cost than it currently is. Without the delays and [expletive and politics deleted] , it would have done numbers on a par with SP, at least, in my humble opinion - a tidy profit, considering that production loan interest wouldn't have been incurred.
Still...it is what it is. And what it is...will grow in the rear-view mirror of posterity. At least, I think it will.
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Despite China being the world’s largest movie venue and western films like Bond being popular, Skyfall grossed about $60 million and Spectre about $84 million, not adjusted for inflation, there. In Australia, the numbers were about $50 million and $75 million, not adjusted for inflation.
For the sake of argument, let’s just say $100 million each, taking into account inflation and the pandemic, for NTTD. Added to the current $550 million worldwide take, that would be $750 million. Let’s assume it earns another $75 million in the U.S. and comparably in the rest of the international markets. That would put it at $900 million. This would be the upper end of the break even point most analysts say it must meet. NTTD will make a profit, but it will take more time and likely mostly come from ancillary sales of DVDs, streaming, and TV broadcasts. In fact, I suspect it will be shown regularly on cable for years, and it will likely do better business streaming or on demand.
Had they not taken so long to make it, and had it debuted in late 2018 or early to mid 2019, not only would the box office have been strong, I suspect, but it might even have been even more profitable through various home sales later since so many people stayed out of theaters once the pandemic cranked up. The footdragging to get it made likely will cost the studio more in unrealized box office than they’ll ever care to admit. But it will make money. But gone are the days when a Bond film makes four, five, or more times its production and marketing costs at the box office.
anecdotal department:
in Ontario, the government allowed full capacity at movie theatres the same day the movie finally began playing. For this reason amongst others, I waited two weeks to see it, then chose to see the first matinee on a weekday, which was the cheaper regular version, rather than the more expensive 3d version which was only showing in the evening. The manager was checking vaccine passports at the door, and had a similar attitude to all those restaurant owners who are so desperately grateful to see any customers return at all. He said I was not the only one who had waited til "crowds died down", and I get the idea the legal change to permitting full capacity might have had the perverse effect of scaring away potential customers who would have preferred enforced social distancing in the theatre, especially amongst the demographic expected for a BondFilm.
Lesson to be learned? They should just let this film run in the theatres for months, like they used to in the 70s, rather than expecting it to break box office records in the opening weekend as has been practice in recent years. The situation has changed thanks to COVID, and that whole expectation to break records the opening weekend was leading to crappier and crappier films anyway.
It depends in part on what happens with the pandemic -- last winter in the U.S., cases spiked as people went indoors but so many were unvaccinated and refused to wear masks and social distance. This summer, we saw cases in the U.S. reach the same levels, which was a considerable jump over the summer period the year before. And this was after more people were vaccinated. All that portends for a challenging winter this year.
Of course, we can't predict with certainty. Some experts are saying they actually think cases will go down this winter. My gut says they're wrong, but we'll see. But if the pandemic rears up again and worse than last winter, people -- especially the older ones who go to see Bond -- may start to avoid theaters again. That will include the holiday periods when movies traditionally make much of their money.
I just saw om the news that this has been the best October in this millennium for the cinemas here in Norway, much because of NTTD and the home-grown Cannes winner "The worst person in the world". Has other countries seen comparable results for the cinemas?
That's a really good question. All I'm finding right now is that NTTD crossed the $600 million mark worldwide but that box office was off projections in China. It's harder to say, too, because it's not clear if numbers are always adjusted for inflation or if ticket prices and the like are higher to make comparisons to the past. I have, however, read some articles that suggest NTTD is tracking closer to Spectre with box office results than to Skyfall, which even if not adjusted for inflation is so far more successful.
https://deadline.com/2021/10/no-time-to-die-dune-venom-let-there-be-carnage-china-global-international-box-office-1234865457/
Yeah, but tbf wasn't Skyfall the most successful Bond film ever, outstripping previous title holder Thunderball? And the most successful British film ever? Tough one to beat.
Roger Moore 1927-2017