This is welcome news. I believe that much of the rest of Europe is doing or has already done the same. This is definitely what is needed in these dangerous times for Europe.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
I suppose it's a case of better late than never. Without being overly dramatic there are shades of the 1938 Munich Crisis here where some time has been bought to rearm in the face of an aggressive neighbour in Europe.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
Silhouette ManThe last refuge of a scoundrelPosts: 8,803MI6 Agent
Putin as said Russia will only enter negotioations if they get to keep four regions (more than they are occupying now) in Ukraine and Ukraine promises never to join NATO. That's like a burglar who refuses to leave the house unless he gets to keep more than he mananged to steal and the house owner promises never to install a burglary alarm! 🤣
But there are indications that Russia is nearing complete collapse. The Ruble is what...10% of its original value? Should be an interesting latter half of 2024.
Sir MilesThe Wrong Side Of The WardrobePosts: 27,342Chief of Staff
It makes a difference from the first Cold War when the USSR and Red China were at each other's throats for a while there. There was even talk of nuclear war between them by the late 1960s.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
Another difference is that this time China is clearly more powerful than Russia.
Silhouette ManThe last refuge of a scoundrelPosts: 8,803MI6 Agent
Yes, it's funny how times change. It looks like Putin went cap in hand to China recently looking for more arms. This century will see China overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world. Hopefully China doesn't start any expansionist adventures of its own in Taiwan with all that's going on in Europe. I have a feeling they're not that silly though.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
I believe so. The New Axis Powers. I'm terribly worried about the future - both near- and far-term.
Check out my Amazon author page!Mark Loeffelholz
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Silhouette ManThe last refuge of a scoundrelPosts: 8,803MI6 Agent
Yes, it feels like we're heading into this century's version of the 1930s. The world has never been more dangerous at any time since the Cold War. It's worrying and concerning but it seems that's where we're headed.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
LoeffelholzThe United States, With LovePosts: 8,998Quartermasters
I won't get into geopolitics, for obvious reasons (you're welcome, Mods! 🍻) ...but the run-up feels a bit more like WWI to me than the second one - although I agree with your '30s observation, which are echoed in a couple of deliberately unspecified ways as the tableau plays out.
Check out my Amazon author page!Mark Loeffelholz
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Silhouette ManThe last refuge of a scoundrelPosts: 8,803MI6 Agent
edited June 19
I think if you live long enough you're sure to experience some turbulent times. I think of my late father as one example from the past. He lived through the Depression, World War II (he was in the Home Guard), the Korean War, the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Energy Crisis of the 1970s, the fall of the Berlin Wall and latterly the September 11th attacks and the Iraq War. Of course there were also economic ups and downs with recessions during his lifetime too. I'm still (just) under 40 and I've lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall (I recall seeing it on the TV news as a 5 year old) and the end of the Cold War, the September 11th attacks, the Iraq War, Bird flu and Swine flu, Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine War, the worst inflation in the UK since 1982 and the cost of living crisis that went with it. So I think we all experience living through turbulent and unexpected events, to say nothing of the challenges day to day in our own personal lives. I know things are serious now but they've been just as serious in the past and we got through them. It's always good to put things into perspective.
"The tough man of the world. The Secret Agent. The man who was only a silhouette." - Ian Fleming, Moonraker (1955).
The world seems to lurch from crisis to crisis for various reasons. We always seem to come out the other side and I suspect that this whole Ukrainian situation will resolve itself in a way that enables most of the world to move forward. I don't see Russia surviving this intact (I think Russia will probably become a vassal state to China) but the rest of Europe will probably move forward with little changes to anything apart from paying their energy bills to China instead of Russia.
The only thing I'm not confident of is the timeline.
I think Russia has a good chance of suviving intact, but I agree the country is not unlikely to become a second-tier state that mainly natural supplies resources to China. However I don't see how we would end up paying energy bills to China. They mainly produce coal for their domestic market adn I don't think Russia will tank so badly they have to sell all their oil and gass productio to China.
Comments
That doesn't make it wrong!
(Looks around. Shakes head wearily. Goes to bed.)
This is welcome news. I believe that much of the rest of Europe is doing or has already done the same. This is definitely what is needed in these dangerous times for Europe.
Norway has decided to boost defence spending too. Too little band too late, of course.
I suppose it's a case of better late than never. Without being overly dramatic there are shades of the 1938 Munich Crisis here where some time has been bought to rearm in the face of an aggressive neighbour in Europe.
Speech by French President Emmanuel Macron:
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-europe-china-competition-protectionism-geopolitics/#:~:text=PARIS%20%E2%80%94%20French%20President%20Emmanuel%20Macron,geopolitical%20threats%20from%20authoritarian%20regimes.
It seems like eagles have arrived at the same conclusion as the airlines when it comes to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c88z0p33413o
Civilian planes:
You could say that the eagles have not landed in Ukraine.
Putin as said Russia will only enter negotioations if they get to keep four regions (more than they are occupying now) in Ukraine and Ukraine promises never to join NATO. That's like a burglar who refuses to leave the house unless he gets to keep more than he mananged to steal and the house owner promises never to install a burglary alarm! 🤣
yeah, it's a non starter.
But there are indications that Russia is nearing complete collapse. The Ruble is what...10% of its original value? Should be an interesting latter half of 2024.
One worry is that Ukraine is running out of soldiers…men of an enlisted age are in hiding…
There has been claims that Russia is in the verge of collapse since late 2022, so I'm not convinced.
One step closer...
Yes, Russia is getting more and more under China's control/influence.
It makes a difference from the first Cold War when the USSR and Red China were at each other's throats for a while there. There was even talk of nuclear war between them by the late 1960s.
Another difference is that this time China is clearly more powerful than Russia.
Yes, it's funny how times change. It looks like Putin went cap in hand to China recently looking for more arms. This century will see China overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world. Hopefully China doesn't start any expansionist adventures of its own in Taiwan with all that's going on in Europe. I have a feeling they're not that silly though.
Putin is in North Korea. Nothing says "my special military operation is going great" like going to Pyongyang to ask for more guns and ammo. 😁
Russia, China, North Korea. The rogue states of the world unite. Where next? Iran?
I believe so. The New Axis Powers. I'm terribly worried about the future - both near- and far-term.
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Yes, it feels like we're heading into this century's version of the 1930s. The world has never been more dangerous at any time since the Cold War. It's worrying and concerning but it seems that's where we're headed.
I won't get into geopolitics, for obvious reasons (you're welcome, Mods! 🍻) ...but the run-up feels a bit more like WWI to me than the second one - although I agree with your '30s observation, which are echoed in a couple of deliberately unspecified ways as the tableau plays out.
"I am not an entrant in the Shakespeare Stakes." - Ian Fleming
"Screw 'em." - Daniel Craig, The Best James Bond EverTM
Syria and Russia are helping each other out too. Perfect.
I think if you live long enough you're sure to experience some turbulent times. I think of my late father as one example from the past. He lived through the Depression, World War II (he was in the Home Guard), the Korean War, the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Energy Crisis of the 1970s, the fall of the Berlin Wall and latterly the September 11th attacks and the Iraq War. Of course there were also economic ups and downs with recessions during his lifetime too. I'm still (just) under 40 and I've lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall (I recall seeing it on the TV news as a 5 year old) and the end of the Cold War, the September 11th attacks, the Iraq War, Bird flu and Swine flu, Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine War, the worst inflation in the UK since 1982 and the cost of living crisis that went with it. So I think we all experience living through turbulent and unexpected events, to say nothing of the challenges day to day in our own personal lives. I know things are serious now but they've been just as serious in the past and we got through them. It's always good to put things into perspective.
How dare you, SM, to post such a thoughtful and level-headed reply when HarryCannon expressed our feelings in one GIF? 🤷
A picture is worth a thousand words. That said, what else would you expect from me but a long-winded post? 😉
👍
The world seems to lurch from crisis to crisis for various reasons. We always seem to come out the other side and I suspect that this whole Ukrainian situation will resolve itself in a way that enables most of the world to move forward. I don't see Russia surviving this intact (I think Russia will probably become a vassal state to China) but the rest of Europe will probably move forward with little changes to anything apart from paying their energy bills to China instead of Russia.
The only thing I'm not confident of is the timeline.
I think Russia has a good chance of suviving intact, but I agree the country is not unlikely to become a second-tier state that mainly natural supplies resources to China. However I don't see how we would end up paying energy bills to China. They mainly produce coal for their domestic market adn I don't think Russia will tank so badly they have to sell all their oil and gass productio to China.