Box Office Challenges
Gassy Man
USAPosts: 2,972MI6 Agent
Various news sites are framing No Time to Die's opening weekend in the U.S. differently, but most acknowledge that the take was the lowest since Casino Royale (adjusted for inflation). The latest tallies -- which now include Monday's ticket sales, as it was recognized as the new federal holiday, Indigenous People's Day -- say it finished at just above $62 million, still lower than many predictions for the weekend. COVID-19 and the longer run-time, of course, have affected ticket sales. So far, the film has made a little over $300 million combined worldwide.
"For “No Time to Die,” $56 million to start is somewhat disappointing because it carries an enormous budget and will need to gross at least $800 million globally to get out of the red (probably closer to $900 million). Box office experts predict the film will complete its domestic run with approximately $150 million, considerably short of its franchise predecessors, 2012’s “Skyfall” ($300 million) and 2015’s “Spectre” ($200 million). In that case, “No Time to Die” will need to generate significant coinage at international box office, where it’s already amassed a strong $145 million. It has yet to open in China (set for Oct. 29), which is a popular market for Bond. “No Time to Die” has grossed $313 million to date and may struggle to break even, at least in its theatrical run."
Comments
I’ve seen some reporting that suggests NTTD’s anemic performance is a result of older Bond fans not being ready to return to cinemas in the US. Compare that with Venom 2 which was aimed at a younger crowd. So we should see the same dynamic play out with upcoming releases. Bad news for The Last Duel. Good news for The Eternals. (Dune is going to suffer mightily for being available on HBO.)
$150M 🇺🇸 box office would be dreadful when you consider both CR and QoS did more than that many years ago. Hopefully the film will have legs and the older audience will eventually come out and see it. Also the longer running time meaning less showings per day which may mean it just takes a bit longer to rack up the 💵
Whatever we think of the film hopefully we all want it to be a box office hit to make sure Bond does indeed return.
The good news is the Chinese market is unlikely to be ruined by spoilers since the authorities there are very good at suppressing information 😁
The CCP is unable to contain the tsunami that is Squid Games.
I have seen NTTD once at the theater and may go back next week. The almost three hour run time combined with the limited hours theaters are open on weekdays in my area has been a factor.
I'm far from an expert here. Do the probably huge sales of home media count towards the overall profit?
When people adjust for inflation but not a global pandemic. Small feet, big shoes. 🤡
Thanks, Gymkata.
I'm sure existing contracts foreclose this option, but in the US it might have made sense to have a one month theatrical run—or until NTTD had opened everywhere around the world—before making it available for an extra charge to streaming services. Then another month-plus window followed by digital and blu-ray release in time for Christmas.
A Christmas DVD release might be nice for those who - the elderly generation - who can't make it to see the film but it was on their wish list/bucket list. Otherwise, holding out for the release of the Bond film means nothing.
Also, let's face it, you don't really take a 80 plus person to a cinema during a pandemic when it's a three hour running time. What's more - imo - it's quite a harrowing, full on watch on the big screen, on the telly you can take breaks.
Another snag is not having other movies that would draw people in and back to the cinema - in the way that TND bobbed along in the wake of Titanic very nicely - the latter was an event movie and got many out to the cinemas that wouldn't normally go, then they said, hey, that was cool and there's a Bond film on, we can try that next week...
The trailers for upcoming films honestly didn't tempt me, I mean Venom looks bloody horrible, imo it shouldn't be on with the Bond film. That Sopranos prequel would have got me back but it's fled the cinemas now.
Roger Moore 1927-2017
True that… the trailers I saw at the Bond film didn’t excite me at all.
The trailers I caught with my viewings included "Cry Macho", starring an up-and-coming actor named Clint Eastwood, not looking a day over 80. Might go catch that one.
Cry Macho is for die hard Clint fans only, I'm one of them and it was hard going. He looks fine facially, but his movements are of a 90 year old.
I agree big mistake keeping Dune on HBO Max, normally I'd goto to cinema to see it, but will HBO Max, then decide if cinema trip.
In my opinion, the weak box office is a combination of two factors. The first, and most obvious, being the pandemic. This cannot be overstated. For my viewing, three of us rented a theater and saw the film without anyone else in attendance. Absent this option, I doubt I would’ve seen the movie on opening weekend, and I am certainly not what would be considered a “casual” Bond fan. This is a different world than the one in which any other Bond film has been released. It’s not really fair to compare it to past entries.
I think the second factor is Craig. Yes, he’s been broadly popular (no need to remind me of that), but audiences pretty much know what they’re going to get from his Bond at this point. A new Bond gives people a reason to revisit the character. A 17-year incumbent Bond does not. And while the reviews have been positive, they’re not setting this up as a must-see film
Will the ending, as it becomes more widely known, bring people in or turn people away? I think will determine whether NTTD has legs.
This was the first film I've seen in the theaters in 17 months. I specifically chose a theater and time there was maybe 1 person within 15 feet of me. I got the trailers for Dune and The Eternals. I plan to see Dune in the theater. Denis Villeneuve film's need a big screen immersive environment. However any subsequent viewings will be on HBO Max. As for the Eternals, I will probably skip it. I'm sorta over the MCU.
At least with Dune I don't have to worry about spoilers. I read the book for the first time when I was 12.
I don't think the COVID pandemic was a big a factor as some make it out to be; other movies had much healthier openings during periods when the Delta outbreak was more serious than it has been during the past week or so. All the changes to the classic Bond formula were made to try to skew the film towards a different, potentially younger audience so if anything one could argue EON failed to reach their target market in the USA.
I do think having the movie play for nearly two weeks in other markets didn't do the US release any favors. Just on a psychological level, there's something weird about going to see a movie two weeks after a lot of the world has already seen it.
Related to that, we now live in an interconnected world and staying spoiler free for that period of time is impossible for many people and I think that probably had some impact on the box office as well. I know a few Bond fans who found out what happens and instantly lost interest in seeing the movie in any format.
From what I've read the movie cost $250 million to make, with another $100 million spent on advertising. That doesn't include any costs that may have been incurred from the repeated delays. Box office experts say the movie will need to make $800-$900 million to be considered profitable. I don't see it getting anywhere near that during its box office run. The producers' resistance to a streaming pay per view type deal means that they ultimately won't make as much money from the eventual streaming release using more conventional channels. I'm sure the Amazon deal will cushion the blow but ultimately I don't see this getting anywhere near the box office hauls of Spectre or Skyfall. There are rumors that EON was offered as much as $600 million for streaming rights before finally making it to the theaters. In retrospect, from a purely business standpoint, I wonder if the producers are now reconsidering whether they should have accepted such an offer.
I’ve seen it 4 times now and the cinema has been practically full for each showing…with several showings selling out either side of the times I went…
The marketing leading up to the film was a WOKE disaster. Many people felt it was going down this route and YouTube is filled with videos about how they were going to avoid it. Some massive influencers in there too reporting about Lashana Lynch and her one track interviews. People are fed up with it, and many other such productions have not done well because of these perceived agendas. Most people I know and have spoken with, also thought it would be a anti white male mess as this seems to be the fad right now with mainstream programming, films etc. Even a week after the release in the U.K., YouTube was still throwing out how Bond was going WOKE. That’s killed films dead in the water recently, so it can’t have done Bond much good.
My wife is a big Bond fan (and a bigger Daniel Craig fan) but she wouldn't go with me for fear of our local Covid surge. So there's one ticket lost!
Seriously, I suspect that if the movie fails to hit its targets there will be lots of contributing factors. The big question is what lesson Eon takes away and how their interpretation influences the creative decisions they make going forward.
I saw NTTD at a 3:30pm matinee at my local IMAX today. I would say the theater was at about 25% capacity. It's quite a large 24 screen multiplex that also has a Dolby Cinema Auditorium (which has an even larger seating capacity than the IMAX room) and is also showing NTTD. NTTD was also showing on another 2 or 3 smaller screens at the theater. The 2hr 45 minutes running time has also limited the amount of showings in an industry where most theaters are operating with less showings of all films in general.
IMO, the box office numbers for NTTD in the US are not surprising. Bond films in the US these days skew to an older audience and older audiences have been slower to return to theaters. Some older folks, with a bit more money to spend have opted to invest in larger 4K Ultra HD TV's and surround sound systems during the pandemic and have gotten very comfortable with watching films in the comfort (and safety) of their own homes. The 2hr 45 minutes running time has also limited the amount of showings in an industry where most theaters are operating with less showings of all films in general due to the pandemic. I also agree that there has been a lot of internet / You Tube trolling of the film that probably hasn't helped either. In the end, once NTTD opens in more international markets (China is huge), combined with other international box office (Bond does better in Europe than the US), eventual Home PPV and DVD/Blu Ray/ 4K physical media release and eventually onto premium cable outlets, the film will turn a profit. EON will soldier on with MGM and their new owner, Amazon and in probably in about 4 years we will see whats next for James Bond.
I suspect it will underperform initially but eventually turn a profit. It just won't be Skyfall level, especially adjusted for inflation.
So a bit like OHMSS which also turned a slow profit and which this film appears to want to emulate 🤔
I’ve never seen the attraction of the OHMSS film. I even bought it to watch a few times and still think it’s one of the worst films in the canon. Not sure why they decided to reference it so much in this film.
OHMSS was phenomenally successful. It just didn’t make as much as previous Bond films. Against a $7 million budget, it grossed nearly $83 million in its worldwide run alone. Assuming marketing costs made the total expenditure $15 million, that means it made four or five times its cost, including TV broadcasts. I don’t think NTTD will earn that much. If the $800-$900 million breakeven point is accurate, it may exceed that cost by $100-$150 million. No doubt, DVDs and the like will bring in more cash, but it doesn’t feel to me like it will be more profitable than Spectre, which didn’t earn as much as Skyfall.
I agree. Most damning of all, and I could say this of any release during the Covid-era, I'm not hearing the buzz.
I was chatting with my nephew yesterday and asked if he was going to see NTTD and he replied "No" as if I was crazy to even ask. He and his friends (late teens/early 20s), have no interest in the current Bond. He's loved earlier Bond films that he's seen on TV or streamed - even Connery ones which look and sound ancient to him. He and his friends will happily go and see F&F for excitement and sheer escapism even though they admit they're 'rubbish.' But they say that Bond is too long and except for the odd scene, too boring. He said the best bit in Daniel Craig's Bond was the Sebastien Foucan chase scene, though he does admit that the DB5 stuff in Matera looks incredible! If there was even a remote chance of him and his friends paying to see NTTD, that likely went out the window when all the "woke" stuff started to leak as well, I suspect. Now that they've heard whispers of how NTTD ends, I doubt if I could drag him...even if I paid for the popcorn and jelly twizzlets.
That's just one anecdotal response but if he and his friends reflect even a minority of that 17-21 age group, that's a big chunk of the potential paying market that NTTD is likely going to fall short on.
This is what I’m encountering with younger folks (teen to mid 20’s). In all the cinemas I’ve seen it, there are hardly any people under 30 there.
That's what I've seen, too.
Big franchise films rely on repeat viewings. Craig’s Bond films have done what Connery’s have, which is crossed over to audiences who ordinarily wouldn’t watch a Bond movie. In particular, Craig has appealed to more women, so it’s not a mystery that when you look at who is bent out of shape about his casting, it’s mostly men. I personally know of no women bothered by him, which isn’t to say they don’t exist. But this has also shaped the direction of Craig’s films, especially as he seems very much into Gen-X ideas of DEI on women and LGBTQ, in particular. How much is real versus performative is anybody’s guess, but the “woke” elements of his Bonds no doubt reflects this currency.
The problem for NTTD will mostly be the repeat viewings. And men tend to be the repeat ticket buyers, not women. In the case of Bond, it may be older men. Given the film’s downbeat plot and that the ending is all over the Web, a lot of older men will stay at home during COVID. We know trends were already changing to home viewership before COVID, which further convinced people to buy 4K set ups for home theaters. The lure of IMAX was a good marketing ploy, but it may not be enough. The wild card is China, where I suspect it will do big business, perhaps enough to make up for less stellar ticket sales in the U.S. That’s rather funny because given that the Craig Bonds haven’t exactly been “woke” toward Asians — Macao notwithstanding, the Craig Bonds play on a Gen-X/1950s sensibility about race being Black and White (and maybe Brown) — China nevertheless remains a big market for western films.
This just published from Forbes (and I swear I didn’t read it before writing my responses).
“Even if it ends up below Spectre ($881 million), and it almost certainly will unless it plays like a Wu Jang star vehicle in China, we’re still in a scenario where the last three 007 movies have been the three biggest ever in global grosses. And even if it ends up closer to $160 million (Die Another Day) than $200 million (Spectre), the 15% Covid loss means the film would have otherwise earned $184 million.”
That article is a good corrective to some of the negativism I've seen on this board. I doubt people here are actively rooting against NTTD. But unhappiness with the ending by certain hardcore fans seems to translate into a generalized expectation that *everyone* will hate the ending. That doesn't seem to be true based on the 88% fresh audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.