Will November be the release month? Its still too early to say. There are advantages and disadvantages to releasing in November vs pushing back into 2021. To be honest, I think that if Eon are forced to pull the film back again to mid or late 2021, they will consider simply releasing NTTD in November 2022 and repackaging it as a 60th anniversary celebration. This might be an effective way to rebuild public hype and interest, as well as ensuring a very long gap to allow this current situation to get better. What do others think?
I'm sure there are large debts to be paid, which is probably why they won't wait until 2022 to release it, despite the benefits you mention.
The interest rate on those debts is probably about 6%. Assume the loan amount is $200 million. That's $12 million a year in interest expenses. I'm guessing EON's willing to pay that for some time rather than lose 20-30% off its box office gross on a $1 billion + movie.
The pandemic stuff is so unpredictable but there is no question that things are back on the rise in the States, in particular in areas/states where restrictions have been relaxed and there were not as many restrictions to begin with. A vaccine notwithstanding it continues to be a bumpy ride. From what I have read, the theater chains were looking to reopen in July but who knows. I would have to believe that the streaming option would be a last resort but I would also venture to guess that they have a date in mind when they would need to go to streaming unless they have done some sort of financial wizardry in re-negotiating with creditors.
With cases surging in North America I do not see the movie coming out this year.
Either they are going to have to wait until there is a vaccine and the dust settles with COVID or release via Online Channels charging a premium...the thing is also that this is not their fault...no one saw this coming.
"North America" isn't quite accurate. Canada has its COVID19 problem almost under control with about 300 cases per day and fifteen deaths per day and a declining positivity rate. It will probably be in the low single digits in deaths/day by November.
It's the US which has the problem with about 50,000 cases per day, 600 deaths per day and a rising positivity rate.
With cases surging in North America I do not see the movie coming out this year.
Either they are going to have to wait until there is a vaccine and the dust settles with COVID or release via Online Channels charging a premium...the thing is also that this is not their fault...no one saw this coming.
"North America" isn't quite accurate. Canada has its COVID19 problem almost under control with about 300 cases per day and fifteen deaths per day and a declining positivity rate. It will probably be in the low single digits in deaths/day by November.
It's the US which has the problem with about 50,000 cases per day, 600 deaths per day and a rising positivity rate.
And the United States federal government has given us no reason to expect anything will change, in terms of mitigating policies and procedures, before the November election. If there is a strategy (and I don't think there is) it's a version of the one Sweden tried and aborted.
Where I live, restaurants are open for indoor dining, but few people are dining based on news reports, and I expect them to close again as the positive cases, followed by deaths, spike. Movie theaters face the same predicament. Hollywood doesn't just need cinemas to be open, they need people going in droves.
Would MGM be willing to launch NTTD worldwide without the US audience it needs to hit its profit targets? I doubt it.
I often think about how close EON came to having the film ready February 14. It certainly would have suffered in East Asian markets by then but it might have had a solid, if abbreviated, run elsewhere.
There's an old saying that you make your own luck. Since Cubby died, with some notable exceptions (eg. casting Craig), EON has made its own lucklessness.
It’s a catch 22 for EON. Much of the world might be open for business by November, but the US will not be among that group because our leadership and certain elements of our populace and comply incapable of adequately confronting this situation. But without the US box office, they can’t make the money they need.
If it comes down to it could they just release the film in cinemas in the countries that are open and via streaming in those that aren’t? If November comes and countries like UK, China, SK, France, Australia, Canada etc are open but US isn’t, it wouldn’t be such a hit to go the streaming option just for the States.
Mr MartiniThat nice house in the sky.Posts: 2,699MI6 Agent
If it comes down to it could they just release the film in cinemas in the countries that are open and via streaming in those that aren’t? If November comes and countries like UK, China, SK, France, Australia, Canada etc are open but US isn’t, it wouldn’t be such a hit to go the streaming option just for the States.
Theres actually another option that can be explored. If enough open areas can be found, they can do a drive-in movie. Yes, it limits showings to night time only. My county just had three different movies showing over three nights. Friday was Dodgeball, Saturday was Napoleon Dynamite. The following Friday night was Independence Day. They brought in a couple food trailers so you could drive-up and buy some food if you wanted, then drive to the back lot for the movie. All the showings were sold out. Most people were satisfied with the way it was run. The price was $35 per car, no limit on the amount of people in the car. They also asked you didn't wander around or sit outside your car in groups.
Some people would complain even if you hang them with a new rope
The drive in angle is certainly an interesting one but the reality is most of these drive in theaters that have popped up (at least in the US) are cobbled together affairs showing older films. Certainly the advent of digital projection has made these new drive ins possible but if we are talking about a 200 million dollar plus blockbuster partially shot w/IMAX 70mm cameras (and other films like that along with Hollywood "A" level films which would typically have a theatrical release) there are problems beyond only being able to show films after sundown. The weather: unless you live in a climate that does not have winter weather, drive ins are basically a seasonal business (although some drive ins did offer little heaters for cars in the colder months but they unfortunately posed safety issues) and of course there is rain. The theater chains would need to buy in to the idea which would take $$$ that they probably don't have right now. Technical issues and quality of presentation: In this modern age of digital projection that should not be a problem, however, showing a NTTD or other big time film is not going to happen on a semi-pro digital projector. Any theater quality projection system is going to need to be housed inside some type of projection room (drive ins had real projection rooms....only the patrons were outside). And of course the real bugaboo of drive in movies that was never really conquered: sound quality. Modern audiences are not going to be ok with sound from a little speaker hanging from their car window. In the last days of drive ins they tried to address the sound issue with piping the sound through the customer's car sound systems. From a sound quality point, if you had a good audio system in your car it was a significant upgrade.....but.....the problem was that car batteries were going dead at an alarming rate and keeping cars running during the film had its own set of problems (exhaust fumes, noise, safety, etc). I've no doubt with today's technology and plenty of $$$ the sound issue could probably be overcome. I also think the folks who have popped these new drive ins up have provided a very nice option for people to be able to get out safely and see a film (albeit films that can be seen cheaper and more easily at home) in a more "theater like" setting deserve kudos and they may have given the studios and theaters chains at least something to look at. I just don't believe that will be the answer at this point.
Drive-in releases can work when they're essentially novelty hype for a modestly budgeted VOD title (horror movies are getting good buzz this way). They can not be looked at as some viable "third option" to release a $250m blockbuster. In November.
If it comes down to it could they just release the film in cinemas in the countries that are open and via streaming in those that aren’t? If November comes and countries like UK, China, SK, France, Australia, Canada etc are open but US isn’t, it wouldn’t be such a hit to go the streaming option just for the States.
Financially, this would probably be a better option than indefinitely postponing the film, or releasing it by streaming only. Cinemas will probably be open in some parts of the US as well, we just don’t know where at this point.
The bigger concern is this: I am a devoted fan of James Bond. Nevertheless, I will not be going to a theater to see Bond (or any film) until there is either a vaccine for covid-19, or we have reached some version of herd immunity. While there are many who will be willing to chance it, there’s a lot of people like me who will stay away for various reasons. What I’m trying to say is that while covid is still a threat, the box office is going to be crippled. The sooner EON comes to grips with this, the sooner we’ll get to watch NTTD in our living rooms, which for me is preferable to not at all.
Universal just moved Candyman three weeks down the calendar (I suspect this is a preamble to a streaming premiere) and the new Halloween a full year later to October 2021.
To me this is the biggest sign yet that NTTD might not be on screens in November, and I think provides some insight into where studios draw the line between what's fiscally sound as a streaming release vs what, according to them, MUST play in a theater. If they aren't going to burn off Halloween Kills (which can't have cost more than $20 million) on streaming, no way will they let NTTD go direct to VOD.
I think the Box office of Tenet will determine what they do with NTTD
I wonder if Tenet will actually make it into theaters or be pushed back further. Because Tenet was exclusively filmed in IMAX 70mm and 70mm film I would be pretty certain that the producers/director will hold out for a theatrical release even if it means further significant delays. I am guessing that EON and their partners, beyond the financial ramifications, will hold out as long as possible for a theatrical release of NTTD as they also probably see it as a devaluing of the Bond brand and a line they are not quite ready to cross. I have a gut feeling that we may not be seeing NTTD on theater screens until Spring 2021. Just my two cents.
I have zero expectation of seeing this film this year. There's no way the world will be at a place where we can all go to the cinema safely and give this film the box office money it needs. Zaritsky and Calvin are overestimating the chances of the film in cinemas this year. I'd say 0-10% chance.
I'd say they'll shift it back a whole year to Nov 2021. And we'll still be lucky to see it by then. I don't see them releasing this to home streaming but I think they should, and I very much prefer that option. We don't know whether we'll have a vaccine by the end of 21 and I'm actually not terribly hopeful. In each country the virus is either running rampant or there's a yo-yoing of lockdown and easing of lockdown. If they release the film in the cinema this year I won't be going to see it. Being locked into a room for 2.5 hours with a bunch of random people - whether they wear masks or not - is an awful idea.
Boris Johnsson belives there can be "significant normality" in the UK by the middle of November with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".
Think there are widely differing landscapes in different countries. In the UK, we are currently moving out of lockdown quite swiftly, but there isn’t any way of saying what the long term impacts of that will be. In Scotland, we are moving towards a point of eradication; but that could also change after wide reopening. In America, there were a record number of new daily cases recorded over the last 24 hours. These two markets are the key Bond openings so they will have a big say. It’s all too unclear but I think distributors and studios may need to consider variations in their distributing approach from country to country based on circumstances.
Boris Johnsson belives there can be "significant normality" in the UK by the middle of November with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".
There's what politicians say and then there is reality.
MI6 (for what it's worth) is reporting from "sources" that it is a real possibility that NTTD could be pushed back to
late spring/early summer 2021. This was also very interesting in the article/report "To put to rest some often reported misconceptions and rumours, neither EON, MGM, or Universal are considering a premium VOD streaming option for 'No Time To Die'. It will open in cinemas even if it takes another year, or longer. B25 Ltd, the shell company operated by EON Productions for the purposes of making the film, has been paid back the £199m that it cost to produce. Unlike a lot of other studio pictures, there is no ticking clock on debts, and therefore, no rush to release a film in a less than optimal marketplace. The film is also locked and not open to tweaking, re-edits, or re-shoots. It is a finished product sitting on a shelf waiting for release. Any speculation to the contrary is false."
Boris Johnsson belives there can be "significant normality" in the UK by the middle of November with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".
There's what politicians say and then there is reality.
MI6 (for what it's worth) is reporting from "sources" that it is a real possibility that NTTD could be pushed back to
late spring/early summer 2021. This was also very interesting in the article/report "To put to rest some often reported misconceptions and rumours, neither EON, MGM, or Universal are considering a premium VOD streaming option for 'No Time To Die'. It will open in cinemas even if it takes another year, or longer. B25 Ltd, the shell company operated by EON Productions for the purposes of making the film, has been paid back the £199m that it cost to produce. Unlike a lot of other studio pictures, there is no ticking clock on debts, and therefore, no rush to release a film in a less than optimal marketplace. The film is also locked and not open to tweaking, re-edits, or re-shoots. It is a finished product sitting on a shelf waiting for release. Any speculation to the contrary is false."
It sounds like they're in a good situation that they're able to sit on the film and can release it whenever it will be most successful. The US is going to be in bad shape in November, and I don't think there's any possibility of a cinematic release without the US being able to show it.
"B25 Ltd, the shell company operated by EON Productions for the purposes of making the film, has been paid back the £199m that it cost to produce. Unlike a lot of other studio pictures, there is no ticking clock on debts, and therefore, no rush to release a film in a less than optimal marketplace. "
This is the crucial segment here. If there are no external fiscal pressures on Eon, they can release whenever they like, for which read 'will make the most money most quickly.' With this knowledge now out there I'm predicting we won't see NTTD for a while yet, unfortunately... still fairly likely to be spring/summer 2021 or even later than that.
I've always thought the US, UK, (most of) EU and the Chinese markets have to be open before they release NTTD. That's an absolute minimum. Like you I can't see the situation in the US and some other important markets being good enough by November.
The thing is, nobody knows what the world will be like next year. Say they pushed it back to 2021, then what would happen if the world is still in a bad state? They push it back again. And then what happens when the world is STILL in a bad state? They push it back again and again. We have no idea how long this virus will go on for. Not to mention that pushing it back repeatedly is gonna result in many people losing interest. So I think EON should just accept that this particular bond film won't make as much money, release it in November (either cinema with safety mesaures, or VOD) and have done with it. If they keep pushing it back again and again, we could potentially be waiting years to see a film that was filmed years ago... But it's all about money isn't it... I understand that they need to make their money back, but there is absolutely nothing they can do about this, because they cannot predict the future in this very unforuntate time. So just release it, and then deal with the financial consequences IMO. People's health is obviously more important, and like I said, we have no idea what the world will be like next year or the year after that or the year after that.
I don't there'll be several delayed releases after November. I think the near consencus is that the vaccine or at a minimum a medicine will hit the market next year, so I feel confindent we won't have to wait until 2022.
Neither do I think the interest will drop like it probably did when the release date was shifted from April to November, but that was because the promotion had already started when the delay came. If anything the interest may be higher when NTTD is released because people have been wating for big movies on the big screen on so long.
If anything the interest may be higher when NTTD is released because people have been waiting for big movies on the big screen on so long.
+1
This is going to be like pulling back on a rubber band tighter and tighter and releasing it into the sky. The only way the rubber band snaps is if this virus (and the mishandling of it) sends the world into an economic collapse.
If anything the interest may be higher when NTTD is released because people have been wating for big movies on the big screen on so long.
Possible and you may be right with that thinking about it. However, my point still stands that nobody knows how the world will be in the near-future. Very worrying times indeed
If anything the interest may be higher when NTTD is released because people have been wating for big movies on the big screen on so long.
Possible and you may be right with that thinking about it. However, my point still stands that nobody knows how the world will be in the near-future. Very worrying times indeed
Boris Johnsson belives there can be "significant normality" in the UK by the middle of November with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".
There's what politicians say and then there is reality.
MI6 (for what it's worth) is reporting from "sources" that it is a real possibility that NTTD could be pushed back to
late spring/early summer 2021. This was also very interesting in the article/report "To put to rest some often reported misconceptions and rumours, neither EON, MGM, or Universal are considering a premium VOD streaming option for 'No Time To Die'. It will open in cinemas even if it takes another year, or longer. B25 Ltd, the shell company operated by EON Productions for the purposes of making the film, has been paid back the £199m that it cost to produce. Unlike a lot of other studio pictures, there is no ticking clock on debts, and therefore, no rush to release a film in a less than optimal marketplace. The film is also locked and not open to tweaking, re-edits, or re-shoots. It is a finished product sitting on a shelf waiting for release. Any speculation to the contrary is false."
It sounds like they're in a good situation that they're able to sit on the film and can release it whenever it will be most successful. The US is going to be in bad shape in November, and I don't think there's any possibility of a cinematic release without the US being able to show it.
Yeah, this. The US will be a mess for the foreseeable future due to the crippling stupidity of our populace. If EON isn’t under any financial pressure, they won’t stream it and they won’t release it until the conditions are optimal. As other have said, the interest in the film may even increase as we must continue to wait.
Yeah, this. The US will be a mess for the foreseeable future due to the crippling stupidity of our populace. If EON isn’t under any financial pressure, they won’t stream it and they won’t release it until the conditions are optimal. As other have said, the interest in the film may even increase as we must continue to wait.
I have to agree. A very good summation in a nutshell of the overall landscape.
Comments
The interest rate on those debts is probably about 6%. Assume the loan amount is $200 million. That's $12 million a year in interest expenses. I'm guessing EON's willing to pay that for some time rather than lose 20-30% off its box office gross on a $1 billion + movie.
And that's the best case scenario.
And the United States federal government has given us no reason to expect anything will change, in terms of mitigating policies and procedures, before the November election. If there is a strategy (and I don't think there is) it's a version of the one Sweden tried and aborted.
Where I live, restaurants are open for indoor dining, but few people are dining based on news reports, and I expect them to close again as the positive cases, followed by deaths, spike. Movie theaters face the same predicament. Hollywood doesn't just need cinemas to be open, they need people going in droves.
Would MGM be willing to launch NTTD worldwide without the US audience it needs to hit its profit targets? I doubt it.
I often think about how close EON came to having the film ready February 14. It certainly would have suffered in East Asian markets by then but it might have had a solid, if abbreviated, run elsewhere.
There's an old saying that you make your own luck. Since Cubby died, with some notable exceptions (eg. casting Craig), EON has made its own lucklessness.
Theres actually another option that can be explored. If enough open areas can be found, they can do a drive-in movie. Yes, it limits showings to night time only. My county just had three different movies showing over three nights. Friday was Dodgeball, Saturday was Napoleon Dynamite. The following Friday night was Independence Day. They brought in a couple food trailers so you could drive-up and buy some food if you wanted, then drive to the back lot for the movie. All the showings were sold out. Most people were satisfied with the way it was run. The price was $35 per car, no limit on the amount of people in the car. They also asked you didn't wander around or sit outside your car in groups.
Financially, this would probably be a better option than indefinitely postponing the film, or releasing it by streaming only. Cinemas will probably be open in some parts of the US as well, we just don’t know where at this point.
The bigger concern is this: I am a devoted fan of James Bond. Nevertheless, I will not be going to a theater to see Bond (or any film) until there is either a vaccine for covid-19, or we have reached some version of herd immunity. While there are many who will be willing to chance it, there’s a lot of people like me who will stay away for various reasons. What I’m trying to say is that while covid is still a threat, the box office is going to be crippled. The sooner EON comes to grips with this, the sooner we’ll get to watch NTTD in our living rooms, which for me is preferable to not at all.
I keep forgetting how fast things come out on Blu-ray these days. I still think it takes a year like it did 20 years.
To me this is the biggest sign yet that NTTD might not be on screens in November, and I think provides some insight into where studios draw the line between what's fiscally sound as a streaming release vs what, according to them, MUST play in a theater. If they aren't going to burn off Halloween Kills (which can't have cost more than $20 million) on streaming, no way will they let NTTD go direct to VOD.
I wonder if Tenet will actually make it into theaters or be pushed back further. Because Tenet was exclusively filmed in IMAX 70mm and 70mm film I would be pretty certain that the producers/director will hold out for a theatrical release even if it means further significant delays. I am guessing that EON and their partners, beyond the financial ramifications, will hold out as long as possible for a theatrical release of NTTD as they also probably see it as a devaluing of the Bond brand and a line they are not quite ready to cross. I have a gut feeling that we may not be seeing NTTD on theater screens until Spring 2021. Just my two cents.
I'd say they'll shift it back a whole year to Nov 2021. And we'll still be lucky to see it by then. I don't see them releasing this to home streaming but I think they should, and I very much prefer that option. We don't know whether we'll have a vaccine by the end of 21 and I'm actually not terribly hopeful. In each country the virus is either running rampant or there's a yo-yoing of lockdown and easing of lockdown. If they release the film in the cinema this year I won't be going to see it. Being locked into a room for 2.5 hours with a bunch of random people - whether they wear masks or not - is an awful idea.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53440144
There's what politicians say and then there is reality.
MI6 (for what it's worth) is reporting from "sources" that it is a real possibility that NTTD could be pushed back to
late spring/early summer 2021. This was also very interesting in the article/report "To put to rest some often reported misconceptions and rumours, neither EON, MGM, or Universal are considering a premium VOD streaming option for 'No Time To Die'. It will open in cinemas even if it takes another year, or longer. B25 Ltd, the shell company operated by EON Productions for the purposes of making the film, has been paid back the £199m that it cost to produce. Unlike a lot of other studio pictures, there is no ticking clock on debts, and therefore, no rush to release a film in a less than optimal marketplace. The film is also locked and not open to tweaking, re-edits, or re-shoots. It is a finished product sitting on a shelf waiting for release. Any speculation to the contrary is false."
It sounds like they're in a good situation that they're able to sit on the film and can release it whenever it will be most successful. The US is going to be in bad shape in November, and I don't think there's any possibility of a cinematic release without the US being able to show it.
This is the crucial segment here. If there are no external fiscal pressures on Eon, they can release whenever they like, for which read 'will make the most money most quickly.' With this knowledge now out there I'm predicting we won't see NTTD for a while yet, unfortunately... still fairly likely to be spring/summer 2021 or even later than that.
"The spectre of defeat..."
1 - Moore, 2 - Dalton, 3 - Craig, 4 - Connery, 5 - Brosnan, 6 - Lazenby
Neither do I think the interest will drop like it probably did when the release date was shifted from April to November, but that was because the promotion had already started when the delay came. If anything the interest may be higher when NTTD is released because people have been wating for big movies on the big screen on so long.
+1
This is going to be like pulling back on a rubber band tighter and tighter and releasing it into the sky. The only way the rubber band snaps is if this virus (and the mishandling of it) sends the world into an economic collapse.
Possible and you may be right with that thinking about it. However, my point still stands that nobody knows how the world will be in the near-future. Very worrying times indeed
1 - Moore, 2 - Dalton, 3 - Craig, 4 - Connery, 5 - Brosnan, 6 - Lazenby
I can't argue with that.
Yeah, this. The US will be a mess for the foreseeable future due to the crippling stupidity of our populace. If EON isn’t under any financial pressure, they won’t stream it and they won’t release it until the conditions are optimal. As other have said, the interest in the film may even increase as we must continue to wait.
I have to agree. A very good summation in a nutshell of the overall landscape.